Given his early season performance, the smart money is on Tiger Woods to win the Masters in 2013, and the odds reflect that. Oddsmakers are offering an incredible 5/2, giving Tiger an effective 28% chance of winning.
It’s a mystery to me, however, that Rory and Phil are the next two on the list, coming in at 9/1 and 11/1, respectively. That gives them a 10% and 8.3% effective chance of winning. I don’t know what Rory has done this year to encourage the notion that his game is in a place to win the Masters. It seems far more likely to me that he misses the cut. Phil at least has won this year, but I fear his announcement that he has something special cooked up for Augusta, club-wise. When the guy’s not attempting an impossible shot or spraying it all over the course, he’s experimenting with clubs. I’m a huge fan anyway.
In keeping with the trend of the last five years, the eventual winner likely will come from the middle of the pack. Here are the odds for the winner just prior to the Masters for the last five years:
Bubba Watson: 40/1
Charl Schwartzel: 50/1
Phil Mickelson: 9/1
Angel Cabrera: 100/1
Trevor Immelman: 50/1
Given those numbers, the 2013 winner likely will be in the 40/1 – 50/1 range. In that list are a number of worthies: Graeme McDowell, Hunter Mahan, Ian Poulter, Jason Dufner, Nick Watney, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Henrick Stenson, Jason Day, Steve Stricker and Webb Simpson.
I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see those names slipping on a green jacket on Sunday. Ok. We might be surprised to see a jacket on Garcia.
The rest of the odds are below, along with the effective percentage chance to win calculated from those odds: