Even with his colossal meltdown at The Memorial this past weekend, I am not surprised that Tiger Woods is the bettors favorite to win the 2013 US Open at 7/2, although that effectively says he has a 20% chance to win. Tiger has won. Tiger has, after all, won four times this year, while placing fourth in the Masters.
What I can’t understand, however, is that Rory McIlroy is the second favorite at 16/1. Rory has done nothing this year that would make me believe he is ready to win a tournament that bills itself as the toughest test in golf. Not that he doesn’t have the skills. He does. He has not, however, shown them thus far this year.
Adam Scott is in third at 20/1, based largely, I am sure, on the strength of his win at Augusta. He tied for thirteenth this past weekend at The Memorial, and from the highlights I saw, was playing some pretty good golf.
Then there’s The Memorial Winner, Matt Kuchar. Here, I think, is a really solid pick: Two premier wins (WGC Match Play, The Memorial), six top tens and nine top 25s, while making 14 of 14 cuts. Aside from Woods and Brandt Snedeker, no one has played as well this year.
Speaking of Brant Snedeker … the hottest player in golf in the first month of the season is at 25/1. Snedeker started the season in stellar fashion, winning at Pebble Beach, placing second at the Waste Management and Farmers Insurance Opens, and third at the wind-plagued Tournament of Champions. He has six top tens and seven top 25s.
But. And this is a huge but. Snedeker has been suffering through a bizarre injury bug: a condition known as Low Bone Turnover. What happens is that his bones do not replace older, more brittle bone material with newer, denser cells. Thus, the recurring rib injuries. He’s on medication now, but it makes one wonder how much he’s been able to practice.
Other betters picks at 25/1 are Graeme McDowell, Justin Rose and Phil Mickelson. At one level, I think the window might have closed for Phil, but .. And here’s another huge but: Merion is comparably short and from all accounts places a premium on short game wizardry. If Phil can keep the driver in the bag and conjur up some wedge and putter magic, this just might be his chance.
The rest of the odds are below, courtesy of Bovada.LV:
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tiger Woods | 7/2 |
| Rory McIlroy | 16/1 |
| Adam Scott | 20/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 22/1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 25/1 |
| Graeme McDowell | 25/1 |
| Justin Rose | 25/1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 25/1 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 28/1 |
| Lee Westwood | 28/1 |
| Luke Donald | 28/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 33/1 |
| Jason Day | 33/1 |
| Jason Dufner | 33/1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 33/1 |
| Hunter Mahan | 40/1 |
| Jim Furyk | 40/1 |
| Keegan Bradley | 40/1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 40/1 |
| Steve Stricker | 40/1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 50/1 |
| Webb Simpson | 50/1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 55/1 |
| Nick Watney | 55/1 |
| Bill Haas | 66/1 |
| Bubba Watson | 66/1 |
| Ian Poulter | 66/1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 66/1 |
| Matteo Manassero | 66/1 |
| Thorbjørn Olesen | 66/1 |
| Zach Johnson | 66/1 |
| Angel Cabrera | 70/1 |
| Ernie Els | 70/1 |
| Padraig Harrington | 70/1 |
| Tim Clark | 75/1 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 80/1 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 80/1 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 80/1 |
| Peter Hanson | 80/1 |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 90/1 |
| K.J. Choi | 90/1 |
| Charles Howell III | 100/1 |
| Francesco Molinari | 100/1 |
| Kyle Stanley | 100/1 |
| Martin Laird | 100/1 |
| Stewart Cink | 100/1 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 125/1 |
| Ben Crane | 125/1 |
| George Coetzee | 125/1 |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 125/1 |
| John Senden | 125/1 |
| Russell Henley | 125/1 |
| Ryan Moore | 125/1 |
| Scott Piercy | 125/1 |
| Branden Grace | 150/1 |
| Carl Pettersson | 150/1 |
| D.A. Points | 150/1 |
| David Lynn | 150/1 |
| David Toms | 150/1 |
| Davis Love III | 150/1 |
| Kevin Na | 150/1 |
| Lucas Glover | 150/1 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 150/1 |
| Retief Goosen | 150/1 |
| Richard Sterne | 150/1 |
| Robert Garrigus | 150/1 |
| Thomas Bjorn | 150/1 |
| Trevor Immelman | 150/1 |
| Vijay Singh | 150/1 |
| Y.E. Yang | 150/1 |
| Alexander Noren | 200/1 |
| Anders Hansen | 200/1 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 200/1 |
| Peter Lawrie | 200/1 |
| Charlie Wi | 250/1 |
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I agree, I can’t see how Rory based on form would be second favourite. For mine Tiger would be favourite followed by Matt Kuchar and then Adam Scott.
I picked Brandt Snedeker to win a major this year but I also wonder how this injury is going to hamper his play. Hopefully he can find a way to play through it and bring his best to the golf course.