Five months out, finding the best bet in the Masters futures is difficult. But going by recent performances at the tournament, Paul Casey looks like solid value at +4000 says Sascha Paruk from SportsBettingDime.com. He finished T6th, T4th, 6th, and T15th the last four years. He’s also made the cut in eight of his last nine majors.
Those finishes, however, don’t make Casey the favorite. It should come as no surprise to anyone that Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth are favored to win The Masters at +1000, or an implied probability of 9.09%.
Or maybe it SHOULD be a surprise. Tiger showed signs of returning to form last year, but he is 42 and hasn’t been a regular winner for more than five years. Nicklaus famously won at 46, Ben Crenshaw was a surprise at age 43, and the ageless Gary Player at 42. None of those, however, had the extended time off due to multiple knee and back injuries.
Still, modern medicine …
Similarly, Spieth is a bit of a surprise. While Spieth seemed to have solved the Augusta National problem early on, his game in recent months has been a mess. Spieth had no wins in 2018; his best finishes were thirds at the Houston Open and The Masters. If you’re looking for a hot player, he’s not it.
Paruk isn’t just fading the 2015 champ, he’s fading the favorites entirely. “Reed, Garcia, Willet, even Spieth when he burst onto the scene: recent Masters history says to look fairly deep in the odds-list. No player is worthy of anything approaching a 10% probability, not with the depth of talent in the game today. I’m much more inclined to take a player on the rise, like a Patrick Cantlay at +6600. The 26-year-old has taken his game to a new level in the last year. He’s finished top-ten in seven of his last 17 tournaments and is currently riding the second-longest made-cuts streak at 13. This could be a great opportunity to buy low on a Cantlay stock that is on the rise.”
.Johnson had three wins in 2018 to go with 12 Top Tens. He finished T10 at last year’s Masters. He didn’t play due to an injury in 2017; in 2016, Johnson was T4, his highest finish.
McIlroy has been flirting with a Masters win for years. It is the only thing between him and the Career Grand Slam. His last five finishes were: T5, T7, T10, 4 and T8. That’s an impressive record, and if he can get his driving under control it would come as no surprise if he won the Masters in 2019.
Justin Thomas is in at +1200. Unlike McIlroy, he does not have a particularly good record at The Masters: T17, T22, T39. It is often said that it takes several years to figure out the course. Thomas has the talent, but at Augusta, that is often not enough.
Rounding out the top ten are Justin Rose (+1400), Rickie Fowler (+1600), Brooks Koepka (+1600), John Rahm (+2000) and Jason Day (+2200).
One guy to keep an eye on is superstar-in-the-making Tony Finau at +3300. He hung tough last year through an injury and if healthy could make a run this year.
Odds via Sports Betting Dime Follow
|2019 Masters Odds|
|Player||Odds||% Chance To Win|
|Rafael Cabrera Bello||+10000||0.99|
Early Odds To Win The 2019 Masters was first published on GolfBlogger.Com On December 1, 2018