Here is my list of the top ten contenders to win the Masters 2016. To produce this list of potential winners, I used my own proprietary GolfBlogger Masters Statistical Analysis (GBMSA), taking a variety of data from the PGA TOUR site and using a weighted formula to produce rankings for the top thirty players in the gambling odds. This, of course, assumes that the winner comes from the top thirty in the gambling odds, something which I will address at the end.
10: Brooks Kopeka (GBMSA: 73)
9: Marc Leishman (GBMSA: 71)
8: Paul Casey (GBMSA: 67.5)
7: Adam Scott (GBMSA: 65)
6: Kevin Kisner (GBMSA: 46)
5: Danny Willett (GBMSA: 41.5)
4: Jordan Spieth (GBMSA: 39.5)
3: Jason Day (GBMSA: 35.3)
2: Phil Mickelson (GBMSA: 34.)
1: Rickie Fowler (GBMSA: 19)
As for the gambling odds …
Over the last ten years, the mean of the odds for the eventual Masters winner was 24/1. The median was 40/1. The favorite has not won. Mickelson was twice the second-favorite. Take him out of the equation and the mean was 36/1, while the median was 44/1.
Even so, based on that analysis, the winner is likely to come from the group of:
Phil Mickelson (20/1), Dustin Johnson (20/1), Justin Rose (28/1), Louis Oosthuizen (28/1), Henrik Stenson (28/1), Charl Schwartzel (35/1), Hideki Matsuyama (40/1) and Patrick Reed (50/1), with the last three most likely.
My GBMSA scores for the group above are:
Dustin Johnson: 125.5
That makes Mickelson a likely winner.
Still, there is yet another consideration: On three occasions, the winner came from outside the top forty or so in the odds:
2009: Angel Cabrera – 100/1
2008: Trevor Immelman – 80/1
2007: Zach Johnson – 125/1
If that occurs, then the winner will come from someone for whom I have not calculated a score.
The GBMSA scores are below:
GolfBlogger Masters Statistical Analysis - 2016The GBMSA is based on formula that uses weighted statistics taken from the PGA TOUR site. Lower scores are better. These players represent the top thirty players in the current betting odds.