Odds To Win the Open Championship 2015

The current thinking on the Open Championship has Rory McIlroy as a 4/1 favorite. That means that bettors are effectively giving him a 20% chance of winning at the Old Course. McIlroy’s season thus far has been decidedly mixed. He won the WGC-Cadillac Match Play and the Dubai Desert Open, while finishing fourth at the Masters and ninth at the US Open. But he also missed the cut at the BMW PGA and the Irish Open. Rory seems as though he’s going to continue to be a streaky player. Will he get on a hot streak at the Open Championship? If he does, no one will be able to challenge him.

Except, perhaps, Jordan Spieth, who has shown an uncanny ability to win. There was no reason for Spieth to win the US Open. He didn’t have his “A game, struggling at times with three putts on the green and the occasional wayward shot. And yet win he did. Spieth has three wins (including two Majors) and three seconds this season. But like Rory, he also has missed two cuts. Logic and reason suggest that Spieth will not win the Open Championship to get within a hair of the mythic Grand Slam. And yet … Bettors have Spieth at 6/1, which is effectively a 14% chance of winning.

Dustin Johnson, for all his failures at Major Championships is still in a pretty exclusive club on the PGA TOUR with nine wins. There are only a handful of active players on TOUR with more wins, and most of those have a decade or more on Johnson’s 31 years. In his age group, only Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott, with 11 TOUR wins each top Johnson. Still, Johnson seems to be under a self-inflicted curse when it comes to Majors. Bettors apparently are under the impression that the curse has to break at some point, because they’ve given Johnson 12/1 odds, or a 7.6% chance of winning the Open Championship.

Justin Rose is in at 16/1. He’s been playing well this year. Rose has a win and two second place finishes this year to go with four cuts over 12 events.

Adam Scott and Louis Oosthuizen are in at 20/1, or 4.76% chance. With Stevie Williams on the bag, Scott is an interesting choice.

Finally, skipping over Henrik Stenson (22/1); Jason Day, Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler, and Sergio Garcia (25/1) and; Bubba Watson (33/1), we come to Tiger Woods. Along with Branden Grace, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed and Paul Casey, Tiger is given 40/1 odds (2.44%) to win.

Not happening. And that is not as much a commentary on Tiger as it is a recognition of the enormous quantity and quality of talent out there right now.

The complete odds to win the Open Championship for 2015 follow

PlayerOdds% To Win
Rory McIlroy4/1 20
Jordan Spieth6/1 14
Dustin Johnson12/1 7.69
Justin Rose16/1 5.88
Adam Scott20/1 4.76
Louis Oosthuizen20/1 4.76
Henrik Stenson22/1 4.35
Jason Day25/1 3.85
Martin Kaymer25/1 3.85
Phil Mickelson25/1 3.85
Rickie Fowler25/1 3.85
Sergio Garcia25/1 3.85
Bubba Watson33/1 2.94
Branden Grace40/1 2.44
Hideki Matsuyama40/1 2.44
Patrick Reed40/1 2.44
Paul Casey40/1 2.44
Tiger Woods40/1 2.44
Brandt Snedeker50/1 1.96
Brooks Koepka50/1 1.96
Charl Schwartzel50/1 1.96
Graeme McDowell50/1 1.96
Ian Poulter50/1 1.96
Jimmy Walker50/1 1.96
Lee Westwood50/1 1.96
Luke Donald50/1 1.96
Matt Kuchar50/1 1.96
Shane Lowry50/1 1.96
Billy Horschel66/1 1.49
Francesco Molinari66/1 1.49
Jim Furyk66/1 1.49
Danny Willett80/1 1.23
Hunter Mahan80/1 1.23
Jamie Donaldson80/1 1.23
Jason Dufner80/1 1.23
JB Holmes80/1 1.23
Keegan Bradley80/1 1.23
Victor Dubuisson80/1 1.23
Webb Simpson80/1 1.23
Zach Johnson80/1 1.23
Angel Cabrera100/1 0.99
Chris Wood100/1 0.99
Ernie Els100/1 0.99
Gary Woodland100/1 0.99
Harris English100/1 0.99
Padraig Harrington100/1 0.99
Stephen Gallacher100/1 0.99
Bill Haas125/1 0.79
Chris Kirk125/1 0.79
George Coetzee125/1 0.79
Graham DeLaet125/1 0.79
Joost Luiten125/1 0.79
Kevin Na125/1 0.79
Marc Leishman125/1 0.79
Miguel Angel Jimenez125/1 0.79
Nick Watney125/1 0.79
Ryan Moore125/1 0.79
Steve Stricker125/1 0.79
Thorbjørn Olesen125/1 0.79
Edoardo Molinari150/1 0.66
Fredrik Jacobson150/1 0.66
John Senden150/1 0.66
Jonas Blixt150/1 0.66
K.J. Choi150/1 0.66
Matteo Manassero150/1 0.66
Mikko Ilonen150/1 0.66
Pablo Larrazabal150/1 0.66
Rafael Cabrera Bello150/1 0.66
Robert Karlsson150/1 0.66
Ross Fisher150/1 0.66
Ryo Ishikawa150/1 0.66
Stewart Cink150/1 0.66
Thomas Bjorn150/1 0.66
Thongchai Jaidee150/1 0.66
Darren Clarke250/1 0.4
Tom Watson300/1 0.33
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