The current thinking on the Open Championship has Rory McIlroy as a 4/1 favorite. That means that bettors are effectively giving him a 20% chance of winning at the Old Course. McIlroy’s season thus far has been decidedly mixed. He won the WGC-Cadillac Match Play and the Dubai Desert Open, while finishing fourth at the Masters and ninth at the US Open. But he also missed the cut at the BMW PGA and the Irish Open. Rory seems as though he’s going to continue to be a streaky player. Will he get on a hot streak at the Open Championship? If he does, no one will be able to challenge him.
Except, perhaps, Jordan Spieth, who has shown an uncanny ability to win. There was no reason for Spieth to win the US Open. He didn’t have his “A game, struggling at times with three putts on the green and the occasional wayward shot. And yet win he did. Spieth has three wins (including two Majors) and three seconds this season. But like Rory, he also has missed two cuts. Logic and reason suggest that Spieth will not win the Open Championship to get within a hair of the mythic Grand Slam. And yet … Bettors have Spieth at 6/1, which is effectively a 14% chance of winning.
Dustin Johnson, for all his failures at Major Championships is still in a pretty exclusive club on the PGA TOUR with nine wins. There are only a handful of active players on TOUR with more wins, and most of those have a decade or more on Johnson’s 31 years. In his age group, only Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott, with 11 TOUR wins each top Johnson. Still, Johnson seems to be under a self-inflicted curse when it comes to Majors. Bettors apparently are under the impression that the curse has to break at some point, because they’ve given Johnson 12/1 odds, or a 7.6% chance of winning the Open Championship.
Justin Rose is in at 16/1. He’s been playing well this year. Rose has a win and two second place finishes this year to go with four cuts over 12 events.
Adam Scott and Louis Oosthuizen are in at 20/1, or 4.76% chance. With Stevie Williams on the bag, Scott is an interesting choice.
Finally, skipping over Henrik Stenson (22/1); Jason Day, Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler, and Sergio Garcia (25/1) and; Bubba Watson (33/1), we come to Tiger Woods. Along with Branden Grace, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed and Paul Casey, Tiger is given 40/1 odds (2.44%) to win.
Not happening. And that is not as much a commentary on Tiger as it is a recognition of the enormous quantity and quality of talent out there right now.
The complete odds to win the Open Championship for 2015 follow
|Player||Odds||% To Win|
|Miguel Angel Jimenez||125/1||0.79|
|Rafael Cabrera Bello||150/1||0.66|