Who will win the 2016 Tour Championship?
Right now, the odds to win the 2016 TOUR Championship favor Dustin Johnson. By any measure, Johnson has had a monster year: A Major Championship (US Open), a World Golf Championship (Bridgestone), and a FedEx Playoff Championship (the BMW Championship). In 21 starts, he made 20 cuts, finished in the top 25 eighteen times and the top 10 fourteen times. He currently stands at number one in the FedEx Cup standings and number two in the official World Golf Rankings. Johnson is in at 9/2, or a 18.18% implied probability of winning.
Rory McIlroy is in second at 6/1, or a 14.29% implied probability of winning. He has a win at the Deutsche Bank Championship this season, along with ten top 25 finishes in seventeen tournaments. He missed the cuts at both the US Open and the PGA Championship, but finished fifth in the Open Championship. In all, that’s not a particularly good year for McIlroy.
Current World Number One Jason Day is in at 8/1. or an implied probability of 11.11%. That matches the defending champion, Jordan Spieth. Day has three wins: Th Arnold Palmer, The WGC-Match Play, and the Player Championship.
After last year’s historic run, Jordan Spieth has been a bit off. He still had two wins (The Hyundai and the DEAN & DELUCA) and a second at The Masters, but was pretty much out of the runnign at the US Open and Open Championship. “Sophomore Jink.”
For the complete odds to win the 2016 TOUR Championship, culled from several betting sites, see the chart below:
| Player | Money Line | Fractional Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | 450 | 9/2 | 18.18 |
| Rory McIlroy | 600 | 6/1 | 14.29 |
| Jason Day | 800 | 8/1 | 11.11 |
| Jorden Spieth | 800 | 8/1 | 11.11 |
| Adam Scott | 1000 | 10/1 | 9.09 |
| Paul Casey | 1400 | 14/1 | 6.67 |
| Patrick Reed | 1600 | 16/1 | 5.88 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2500 | 25/1 | 3.85 |
| Phil Mickelson | 3000 | 30/1 | 3.23 |
| Bubba Watson | 3300 | 33/1 | 2.94 |
| JB Holmes | 3300 | 33/1 | 2.94 |
| Jimmy Walker | 3300 | 33/1 | 2.94 |
| Matt Kuchar | 3300 | 33/1 | 2.94 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 4000 | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Ryan Moore | 4000 | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Daniel Berger | 4000 | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Russel Knox | 4000 | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 4000 | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Gary Woodland | 4500 | 45/1 | 2.17 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 4500 | 45/1 | 2.17 |
| Si Woo Kim | 6000 | 60/1 | 1.67 |
| Kevin Na | 6000 | 60/1 | 1.67 |
| Justin Thomas | 6000 | 60/1 | 1.67 |
| Kevin Chappell | 6600 | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Roberto Castro | 6600 | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Jason Dufner | 10000 | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 10000 | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Kevin Kisner | 10000 | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| William McGirt | 12500 | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Sean O'Hair | 15000 | 150/1 | 0.66 |
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