Gene Sarazen With The Wanamaker Trophy
I suppose that I sound like a broken record, but Tiger Woods once again is the sport betting odds-on favorite to win a Major Championship. His runaway win at The WGC-Bridgestone was his fifth of the year and has the golf media and bettors all aflutter. Right now, Tiger is slotted in at 3/1, for an effective 25% chance of winning.
I do not know what we can learn from Tiger’s five victories this year in relation to Majors. He won at Torrey Pines (8 wins), Doral (4), Bay Hill (8), TPC Sawgrass (2) and Firestone (8). Those five courses represent roughly 37 percent of his career wins. In the meantime he has finished 4th (Masters) , 47th (US Open) and 6th (Open Championship) in the Majors.
What I pay attention to is the fact that the last time Tiger played a Major at Oak Hill, he finished 12 over par. He also has already complained about he greens. Given his predilection to win on a few courses that he favors, I am not sure that Tiger winning at Oak Hill is a good bet.
Phil Mickelson has two wins this season, including his amazing triumph at the Open Championship. He also has two seconds and a pair of thirds. On the strength of those, Phil is in at 12/1, or a effective chance of winning. As much as I like Phil, I don’t really like his chances at the PGA.
Adam Scott, the Masters winner, and Justin Rose, the US Open winner are in at 16/1 and 20/1 respectively. They’re both fine players, but I can’t seen in them multiple Majors in a single season.
At 25/1, or a 3.8% chance of winning, I think we finally find some players who are likely to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy. Brandt Snedeker has had a very good year thus far, with two wins, two seconds and a third. To many observers, he seems ready to win a Major. Lee Westwood is past due in the Majors category, and I think the PGA is the most accessible for him.
Rory McIlroy also is in at 25/1, but we all know how his year has turned out.
The top ten is rounded out with Henrik Stenson (28/1) and Charl Schwartzel (33/1). Schwartzel is a Masters winner and certainly has the chops to win the PGA. Stenson is somewhat less impressive, with just two PGA Tour career wins, and five top tens this year.
For my part, I look for a winner in the 30-1 to 40-1 range. The PGA Tour is just so deep. Further, I have always thought of the PGA Championship as the most accessible of the Majors. It doesn’t trick up course like the US Open, doesn’t require a “different” skill set like the Open Championship or of demand mastery of Augusta’s diabolical greens. Of course, my feeling about the PGA Championship is belied by a couple of studies, which has actually determined that it is the hardest to win.
At this point, I think my fantasy picks this week will be Westwood, Snedeker, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler as a dark horse.
The complete odds for the 2013 Championship are below, courtesy of sports.williamhill.com.
| Player | Odds |
| Tiger Woods | 3/1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 12/1 |
| Adam Scott | 16/1 |
| Justin Rose | 20/1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 25/1 |
| Lee Westwood | 25/1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 25/1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 28/1 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 33/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 33/1 |
| Hunter Mahan | 33/1 |
| Jason Day | 33/1 |
| Keegan Bradley | 33/1 |
| Luke Donald | 33/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 33/1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 33/1 |
| Bubba Warson | 40/1 |
| Graeme McDowell | 40/1 |
| Jason Dufner | 40/1 |
| Ian Poulter | 50/1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 50/1 |
| Steve Stricker | 50/1 |
| Webb Simpson | 50/1 |
| Bill Haas | 66/1 |
| Ernie Els | 66/1 |
| Jim Furyk | 66/1 |
| Jorden Speith | 66/1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 66/1 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 66/1 |
| Ryan Moore | 66/1 |
| Zach Johnson | 66/1 |
| Angel Cabrera | 80/1 |
| Billy Horschel | 80/1 |
| Francesco Milinari | 80/1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 80/1 |
| Nick Watney | 100/1 |
| Padraig Harrington | 100/1 |
| Paul Casey | 100/1 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 125/1 |
| Branden Grace | 125/1 |
| Chris Kirk | 125/1 |
| Freddie Jacobson | 125/1 |
| Harris English | 125/1 |
| Jonas Blixt | 125/1 |
| Josh Teater | 125/1 |
| Kevin Chappell | 125/1 |
| Kyle Stanley | 125/1 |
| Martin Laird | 125/1 |
| Matteo Manassero | 125/1 |
| Peter Hanson | 125/1 |
| Ryan Palmer | 125/1 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 125/1 |
| Tim Clark | 125/1 |
| Ben Curtis | 150/1 |
| Boo Weekley | 150/1 |
| Brendon De Jonge | 150/1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 150/1 |
| Carl Pettersson | 150/1 |
| Charles Howell | 150/1 |
| David Lingmerth | 150/1 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 150/1 |
| Graham DeLaet | 150/1 |
| KJ Choi | 150/1 |
| Kevin Streelman | 150/1 |
| Marc Leishman | 150/1 |
| Marcel Siem | 150/1 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 150/1 |
| Peter Uihlein | 150/1 |
| Richard Sterne | 150/1 |
| Robert Garrigus | 150/1 |
| Russell Henley | 150/1 |
| Scott Piercy | 150/1 |
| Scott Stallings | 150/1 |
| Shane Lowry | 150/1 |
| Stewart Cink | 150/1 |
| Thomas Bjorn | 150/1 |
| Alex Noren | 200/1 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 200/1 |
| Brian Gay | 200/1 |
| Charley Hoffman | 200/1 |
| Charlie Beljan | 200/1 |
| Chris Stroud | 200/1 |
| Chris Wood | 200/1 |
| DA Points | 200/1 |
| David Lynn | 200/1 |
| David Toms | 200/1 |
| Davis Love | 200/1 |
| George Coetzee | 200/1 |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 200/1 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 200/1 |
| Jason Kokrak | 200/1 |
| Jimmy Wlker | 200/1 |
| John Huh | 200/1 |
| John Merrick | 200/1 |
| Ken Duke | 200/1 |
| Kevin Stadler | 200/1 |
| Lucas Glover | 200/1 |
| matt Every | 200/1 |
| Michael Thompson | 200/1 |
| Mikko Ilonen | 200/1 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | 200/1 |
| Paul Lawrie | 200/1 |
| Rafael Cabrea-Bello | 200/1 |
| Roberto Castro | 200/1 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 200/1 |
| Sang-Moon Bae | 200/1 |
| Stephen Gallacher | 200/1 |
| YE Yang | 200/1 |
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I really do like how the PGA Championship is such a “Straightforward” golf tournament. It’s often more about the players, whereas the other 3 majors are often more about the course. Doesn’t have the lure / history of the others, but in my opinion, the most fair tournament of the 4. It allows the players’ skill sets to shine, and it values talent and execution over luck and knowledge.
Brandt – yes. He is in my top 3.
Westwood – no. Other than the irony of Westwood a Brit winning in New York after Phil wins the British in Scotland, nothing else makes it seem like Westwood would win. Westwood and Donald won’t be winning any majors.
And Tiger – no.
I think Phil may very well surprise a lot of people. He might have to put driver back into play, and given his first win this year he credited the Fit Xtreme driver, that won’t be a problem. He is in my top 3.
And Henrick Stenson. rounds out my top 3.
Today, listening to XM, most were gaga over Tiga. It is his greatest season ever. That he is a shoe in for the PGA.
So I was wondering – how much greater is he this year than he was in 2009. Which to me – he showed complete dominance – as long as you didn’t look at the majors.
For both years, 2013 & 2009, WGC Bridgestone was Tiger’s 5th win. in 2013, he had played 10 events priot, and in 2009, he had played 11 events prior.
But here is a STUNNING difference: in 2013, Tiger had finished in the top 10 seven times – he has no 2nds or 3rds, but that is amazing 7 of 11 finishes in the top 10. 5 wins, 4th at Masters, 6th at British
Until you look at 2009… Tiger finished in the top 10, 10 times in 12 events. 5 wins, and 5 more between 4 and 10.
No majors either year. This was a fairly stunning win at the Bridgestone, by 7 strokes – does that mean he is turning it on? In 2009, he won by a stunning 4 strokes, and then went to finish 2nd at the PGA.
That loss at the PGA, was to YE Yang, who broke the “Tiger has never lost a major after having the 54 hole lead” record. Of course Tiger has also never won a major when he didn’t have the 54-hole lead either – that record still stands.