Odds To Win The 2013 PGA Championship

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Gene Sarazen With The Wanamaker Trophy

I suppose that I sound like a broken record, but Tiger Woods once again is the sport betting odds-on favorite to win a Major Championship. His runaway win at The WGC-Bridgestone was his fifth of the year and has the golf media and bettors all aflutter. Right now, Tiger is slotted in at 3/1, for an effective 25% chance of winning.

I do not know what we can learn from Tiger’s five victories this year in relation to Majors. He won at Torrey Pines (8 wins), Doral (4), Bay Hill (8), TPC Sawgrass (2) and Firestone (8). Those five courses represent roughly 37 percent of his career wins. In the meantime he has finished 4th (Masters) , 47th (US Open) and 6th (Open Championship) in the Majors.

What I pay attention to is the fact that the last time Tiger played a Major at Oak Hill, he finished 12 over par. He also has already complained about he greens. Given his predilection to win on a few courses that he favors, I am not sure that Tiger winning at Oak Hill is a good bet.

Phil Mickelson has two wins this season, including his amazing triumph at the Open Championship. He also has two seconds and a pair of thirds. On the strength of those, Phil is in at 12/1, or a effective chance of winning. As much as I like Phil, I don’t really like his chances at the PGA.

Adam Scott, the Masters winner, and Justin Rose, the US Open winner are in at 16/1 and 20/1 respectively. They’re both fine players, but I can’t seen in them multiple Majors in a single season.

At 25/1, or a 3.8% chance of winning, I think we finally find some players who are likely to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy. Brandt Snedeker has had a very good year thus far, with two wins, two seconds and a third. To many observers, he seems ready to win a Major. Lee Westwood is past due in the Majors category, and I think the PGA is the most accessible for him.

Rory McIlroy also is in at 25/1, but we all know how his year has turned out.

The top ten is rounded out with Henrik Stenson (28/1) and Charl Schwartzel (33/1). Schwartzel is a Masters winner and certainly has the chops to win the PGA. Stenson is somewhat less impressive, with just two PGA Tour career wins, and five top tens this year.

For my part, I look for a winner in the 30-1 to 40-1 range. The PGA Tour is just so deep. Further, I have always thought of the PGA Championship as the most accessible of the Majors. It doesn’t trick up course like the US Open, doesn’t require a “different” skill set like the Open Championship or of demand mastery of Augusta’s diabolical greens. Of course, my feeling about the PGA Championship is belied by a couple of studies, which has actually determined that it is the hardest to win.

At this point, I think my fantasy picks this week will be Westwood, Snedeker, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler as a dark horse.

The complete odds for the 2013 Championship are below, courtesy of sports.williamhill.com.

PlayerOdds
Tiger Woods3/1
Phil Mickelson12/1
Adam Scott16/1
Justin Rose20/1
Brandt Snedeker25/1
Lee Westwood25/1
Rory McIlroy25/1
Henrik Stenson28/1
Charl Schwartzel33/1
Dustin Johnson33/1
Hunter Mahan33/1
Jason Day33/1
Keegan Bradley33/1
Luke Donald33/1
Matt Kuchar33/1
Sergio Garcia33/1
Bubba Warson40/1
Graeme McDowell40/1
Jason Dufner40/1
Ian Poulter50/1
Rickie Fowler50/1
Steve Stricker50/1
Webb Simpson50/1
Bill Haas66/1
Ernie Els66/1
Jim Furyk66/1
Jorden Speith66/1
Martin Kaymer66/1
Nicolas Colsaerts66/1
Ryan Moore66/1
Zach Johnson66/1
Angel Cabrera80/1
Billy Horschel80/1
Francesco Milinari80/1
Hideki Matsuyama80/1
Nick Watney100/1
Padraig Harrington100/1
Paul Casey100/1
Bo Van Pelt125/1
Branden Grace125/1
Chris Kirk125/1
Freddie Jacobson125/1
Harris English125/1
Jonas Blixt125/1
Josh Teater125/1
Kevin Chappell125/1
Kyle Stanley125/1
Martin Laird125/1
Matteo Manassero125/1
Peter Hanson125/1
Ryan Palmer125/1
Thorbjorn Olesen125/1
Tim Clark125/1
Ben Curtis150/1
Boo Weekley150/1
Brendon De Jonge150/1
Brooks Koepka150/1
Carl Pettersson150/1
Charles Howell150/1
David Lingmerth150/1
Geoff Ogilvy150/1
Graham DeLaet150/1
KJ Choi150/1
Kevin Streelman150/1
Marc Leishman150/1
Marcel Siem150/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez150/1
Peter Uihlein150/1
Richard Sterne150/1
Robert Garrigus150/1
Russell Henley150/1
Scott Piercy150/1
Scott Stallings150/1
Shane Lowry150/1
Stewart Cink150/1
Thomas Bjorn150/1
Alex Noren200/1
Bernd Wiesberger200/1
Brian Gay200/1
Charley Hoffman200/1
Charlie Beljan200/1
Chris Stroud200/1
Chris Wood200/1
DA Points200/1
David Lynn200/1
David Toms200/1
Davis Love200/1
George Coetzee200/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano200/1
Jamie Donaldson200/1
Jason Kokrak200/1
Jimmy Wlker200/1
John Huh200/1
John Merrick200/1
Ken Duke200/1
Kevin Stadler200/1
Lucas Glover200/1
matt Every200/1
Michael Thompson200/1
Mikko Ilonen200/1
Pablo Larrazabal200/1
Paul Lawrie200/1
Rafael Cabrea-Bello200/1
Roberto Castro200/1
Ryo Ishikawa200/1
Sang-Moon Bae200/1
Stephen Gallacher200/1
YE Yang200/1
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3 thoughts on “Odds To Win The 2013 PGA Championship”

  1. I really do like how the PGA Championship is such a “Straightforward” golf tournament. It’s often more about the players, whereas the other 3 majors are often more about the course. Doesn’t have the lure / history of the others, but in my opinion, the most fair tournament of the 4. It allows the players’ skill sets to shine, and it values talent and execution over luck and knowledge.

    Reply
  2. Brandt – yes.  He is in my top 3. 

    Westwood – no.  Other than the irony of Westwood a Brit winning in New York after Phil wins the British in Scotland, nothing else makes it seem like Westwood would win.  Westwood and Donald won’t be winning any majors.

    And Tiger – no. 

    I think Phil may very well surprise a lot of people.  He might have to put driver back into play, and given his first win this year he credited the Fit Xtreme driver, that won’t be a problem.  He is in my top 3.

    And Henrick Stenson.  rounds out my top 3.

    Reply
  3. Today, listening to XM, most were gaga over Tiga.  It is his greatest season ever.  That he is a shoe in for the PGA.

    So I was wondering – how much greater is he this year than he was in 2009.  Which to me – he showed complete dominance – as long as you didn’t look at the majors. 

    For both years, 2013 & 2009, WGC Bridgestone was Tiger’s 5th win.  in 2013, he had played 10 events priot, and in 2009, he had played 11 events prior.

    But here is a STUNNING difference: in 2013, Tiger had finished in the top 10 seven times – he has no 2nds or 3rds, but that is amazing 7 of 11 finishes in the top 10.  5 wins, 4th at Masters, 6th at British

    Until you look at 2009… Tiger finished in the top 10, 10 times in 12 events.  5 wins, and 5 more between 4 and 10. 

    No majors either year.  This was a fairly stunning win at the Bridgestone, by 7 strokes – does that mean he is turning it on?  In 2009, he won by a stunning 4 strokes, and then went to finish 2nd at the PGA. 

    That loss at the PGA, was to YE Yang, who broke the “Tiger has never lost a major after having the 54 hole lead” record.  Of course Tiger has also never won a major when he didn’t have the 54-hole lead either – that record still stands.

    Reply

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