Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy still are the bettors favorites to win the Masters, but since my last look in March, the two have essentially switched positions. On March 18, Rory was given a 20% chance of winning (4/1), with Tiger at 16.67% (5/1). Tiger’s convincing win at The Palmer convinced the bettors and he’s now the odds on favorite.
I’ve charted the movement below.
As you can see, Phil’s stock has fallen over the last month, has has Adam Scott, Nick Watney, Sergio Garcia and Dustin Johnson. Watney, Garcia and Johnson, actually have fallen out of the top ten. Rising stock, however belongs to Luke Donald, Hunter Mahan, Charl Schwartzel, Keegan Bradley and Justin Rose.
The truth is, however, that this is anybody’s Master’s (anyone that is, but for the guys in at 1000/1 or worse. I don’t think I’ve actually seen odds that bad before. I feel like dropping ten bucks on Craig Stadler just to say I did). The list of guys with a realistic chance to win is long indeed: Woods, McIlroy, Mickelson, Westwood, Donald, Scott,Mahan, Bradley, Day, Garcia, Simpson and on and on. I feel as though this in fact be the most even the field has been in quite some time.
The complete betting odds for the 2012 Masters is below, courtesy of Bovada.lv. In addition to the fractional odds (10/1, et.al.), I’ve done the mathematical conversion to show the effective percentage chance to win.
| Player | Odds | % To Win |
|---|---|---|
| Tiger Woods | 4/1 | 20.00% |
| Rory McIlroy | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| Phil Mickelson | 11/1 | 8.33% |
| Luke Donald | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Lee Westwood | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Hunter Mahan | 28/1 | 3.45% |
| Justin Rose | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Adam Scott | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Keegan Bradley | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Charl Schwartzel | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Jason Day | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Steve Stricker | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Bubba Watson | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Dustin Johnson | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Nick Watney | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Sergio Garcia | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Webb Simpson | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Martin Kaymer | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Graeme McDowell | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Matt Kuchar | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| K.J. Choi | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Padraig Harrington | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Rickie Fowler | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Jim Furyk | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Angel Cabrera | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Bill Haas | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Bo Van Pelt | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Ian Poulter | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Kyle Stanley | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Gary Woodland | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Trevor Immelman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Zach Johnson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Paul Casey | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Aaron Baddeley | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Alvaro Quiros | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Martin Laird | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Sean O’Hair | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Fred Couples | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Jason Dufner | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Y-E Yang | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Robert Karlsson | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Thomas Bjorn | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Johnson Wagner | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Francesco Molinari | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Henrik Stenson | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Vijay Singh | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Peter Hanson | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| David Toms | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| John Senden | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Sang-Moon Bae | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Charles Howell III | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ben Crane | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ryan Palmer | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Jonathan Byrd | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Mark Wilson | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Ross Fisher | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Kevin Na | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Simon Dyson | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Paul Lawrie | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Lucas Glover | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Kyung-Tae Kim | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Robert Garrigus | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Edoardo Molinari | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Rory Sabbatini | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Stewart Cink | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Jose Maria Olazabal | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Darren Clarke | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Anders Hansen | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Tim Clark | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Tom Watson | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Gonzalo Fernandez | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Harrison Frazar | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Chez Reavie | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Scott Verplank | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Brendan Steele | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Bernhard Langer | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Mike Weir | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Kevin Chappell | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Scott Stallings | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Mark O’Meara | 750/1 | 0.13% |
| Kelly Kraft | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Bryden Macpherson | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Larry Mize | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Corbin Mills | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Ian Woosnam | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
| Sandy Lyle | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
| Randal Lewis | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
| Ben Crenshaw | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
| Craig Stadler | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
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