Odds To Win The Masters - April 3, 2013

Given his early season performance, the smart money is on Tiger Woods to win the Masters in 2013, and the odds reflect that. Oddsmakers are offering an incredible 5/2, giving Tiger an effective 28% chance of winning.

It’s a mystery to me, however, that Rory and Phil are the next two on the list, coming in at 9/1 and 11/1, respectively. That gives them a 10% and 8.3% effective chance of winning. I don’t know what Rory has done this year to encourage the notion that his game is in a place to win the Masters. It seems far more likely to me that he misses the cut. Phil at least has won this year, but I fear his announcement that he has something special cooked up for Augusta, club-wise. When the guy’s not attempting an impossible shot or spraying it all over the course, he’s experimenting with clubs. I’m a huge fan anyway.

In keeping with the trend of the last five years, the eventual winner likely will come from the middle of the pack. Here are the odds for the winner just prior to the Masters for the last five years:

Bubba Watson: 40/1
Charl Schwartzel: 50/1
Phil Mickelson: 9/1
Angel Cabrera: 100/1
Trevor Immelman: 50/1

Given those numbers, the 2013 winner likely will be in the 40/1 – 50/1 range. In that list are a number of worthies: Graeme McDowell, Hunter Mahan, Ian Poulter, Jason Dufner, Nick Watney, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Henrick Stenson, Jason Day, Steve Stricker and Webb Simpson.

I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see those names slipping on a green jacket on Sunday. Ok. We might be surprised to see a jacket on Garcia.

The rest of the odds are below, along with the effective percentage chance to win calculated from those odds:

PlayerOdds% Chance
Tiger Woods5/2 28.57%
Rory McIlroy9/1 10.00%
Phil Mickelson11/1 8.33%
Brandt Snedeker18/1 5.26%
Charl Schwartzel18/1 5.26%
Justin Rose18/1 5.26%
Luke Donald25/1 3.85%
Adam Scott28/1 3.45%
Keegan Bradley28/1 3.45%
Lee Westwood28/1 3.45%
Matt Kuchar28/1 3.45%
Bubba Watson33/1 2.94%
Dustin Johnson33/1 2.94%
Louis Oosthuizen33/1 2.94%
Graeme McDowell40/1 2.44%
Hunter Mahan40/1 2.44%
Ian Poulter40/1 2.44%
Jason Dufner40/1 2.44%
Nick Watney40/1 2.44%
Rickie Fowler40/1 2.44%
Sergio Garcia40/1 2.44%
Henrik Stenson50/1 1.96%
Jason Day50/1 1.96%
Steve Stricker50/1 1.96%
Webb Simpson50/1 1.96%
Bill Haas66/1 1.49%
Bo Van Pelt66/1 1.49%
Martin Kaymer66/1 1.49%
Padraig Harrington66/1 1.49%
Ernie Els80/1 1.23%
Geoff Ogilvy80/1 1.23%
Jim Furyk80/1 1.23%
Mark Wilson80/1 1.23%
Peter Hanson80/1 1.23%
Zach Johnson80/1 1.23%
Francesco Molinari100/1 0.99%
K.J. Choi100/1 0.99%
Matteo Manassero100/1 0.99%
Paul Casey100/1 0.99%
Retief Goosen100/1 0.99%
Robert Garrigus100/1 0.99%
Russell Henley100/1 0.99%
Aaron Baddeley125/1 0.79%
Angel Cabrera125/1 0.79%
Kyle Stanley125/1 0.79%
Martin Laird125/1 0.79%
Alvaro Quiros150/1 0.66%
Ben Crane150/1 0.66%
Charles Howell III150/1 0.66%
David Toms150/1 0.66%
Edoardo Molinari150/1 0.66%
Fred Couples150/1 0.66%
Fredrik Jacobson150/1 0.66%
Gary Woodland150/1 0.66%
John Senden150/1 0.66%
Johnson Wagner150/1 0.66%
Kevin Na150/1 0.66%
Miguel Angel Jimenez150/1 0.66%
Paul Lawrie150/1 0.66%
Robert Karlsson150/1 0.66%
Ryo Ishikawa150/1 0.66%
Sang-Moon Bae150/1 0.66%
Sean O’Hair150/1 0.66%
Stewart Cink150/1 0.66%
Thomas Bjorn150/1 0.66%
Trevor Immelman150/1 0.66%
Vijay Singh150/1 0.66%
Y.E. Yang150/1 0.66%
Darren Clarke250/1 0.40%
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