Over the last several years, I’ve tracked how the betting odds change in the months running up to the Masters, noting how the numbers ebb and flow with the week-in and week-out performance of the Tour players.
At present, Tiger Woods is the clear favorite, with odds of 11/2, or an effective 15.38% chance of winning. This, interestingly, is based on one missed cut and a runaway victory at the Farmers Insurance Open. I’d feel more comfortable about these numbers if Woods’ victory had happened anywhere but at Torrey Pines, a track he absolutely owns. Some courses have named holes. One through eighteen at Torrey are named “Tiger Woods’ First Hole” … “Tiger Woods’ Second Hole” …
Rory McIlroy is the bettors’ second at 7/1, or an effective 12.5% chance. This makes somewhat less sense than Tiger. McIlroy has yet to win in 2013. Or even contend. Then there’s that equipment change …
Phil Mickelson has a closet full of Green Jackets, so bettors with an eye on history have him at 10/1, or an effective 9.09%. As much as I love Phil, I fear he’s done winning Majors. I hope I’m wrong.
Then we get to some logical choices. Brandt Snedeker—who has played better than anyone in 2013—is 16/1 for a 5.88% chance of winning. Assuming he gets through the rib injury, I like this choice.
At 22/1, or a 4.35% chance of winning are a quartet of likely winners: Charl Schwartzel, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood and Luke Donald. Well, likely except for Westwood. I think he’s the new Colin Montgomerie—a fine, Hall-of-Fame quality player who will finish without a Major. I like Westwood’s style, but I fear it won’t happen for him.
The rest of the odds are below, courtesy of Bovada.LV. The % chances were calculated by The GolfBlogger for easier understanding by non-bettors.
|Bo Van Pelt||66/1||1.49%|
|Charles Howell III||150/1||0.66%|
|Miguel Angel Jimenez||150/1||0.66%|