Over the last several years, I’ve tracked how the betting odds change in the months running up to the Masters, noting how the numbers ebb and flow with the week-in and week-out performance of the Tour players.
At present, Tiger Woods is the clear favorite, with odds of 11/2, or an effective 15.38% chance of winning. This, interestingly, is based on one missed cut and a runaway victory at the Farmers Insurance Open. I’d feel more comfortable about these numbers if Woods’ victory had happened anywhere but at Torrey Pines, a track he absolutely owns. Some courses have named holes. One through eighteen at Torrey are named “Tiger Woods’ First Hole” … “Tiger Woods’ Second Hole” …
Rory McIlroy is the bettors’ second at 7/1, or an effective 12.5% chance. This makes somewhat less sense than Tiger. McIlroy has yet to win in 2013. Or even contend. Then there’s that equipment change …
Phil Mickelson has a closet full of Green Jackets, so bettors with an eye on history have him at 10/1, or an effective 9.09%. As much as I love Phil, I fear he’s done winning Majors. I hope I’m wrong.
Then we get to some logical choices. Brandt Snedeker—who has played better than anyone in 2013—is 16/1 for a 5.88% chance of winning. Assuming he gets through the rib injury, I like this choice.
At 22/1, or a 4.35% chance of winning are a quartet of likely winners: Charl Schwartzel, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood and Luke Donald. Well, likely except for Westwood. I think he’s the new Colin Montgomerie—a fine, Hall-of-Fame quality player who will finish without a Major. I like Westwood’s style, but I fear it won’t happen for him.
The rest of the odds are below, courtesy of Bovada.LV. The % chances were calculated by The GolfBlogger for easier understanding by non-bettors.
| Player | Odds | % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tiger Woods | 11/2 | 15.38% |
| Rory McIlroy | 7/1 | 12.50% |
| Phil Mickelson | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Charl Schwartzel | 22/1 | 4.35% |
| Justin Rose | 22/1 | 4.35% |
| Lee Westwood | 22/1 | 4.35% |
| Luke Donald | 22/1 | 4.35% |
| Adam Scott | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Dustin Johnson | 28/1 | 3.45% |
| Bubba Watson | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Hunter Mahan | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Ian Poulter | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Jason Dufner | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Keegan Bradley | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Matt Kuchar | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Nick Watney | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Sergio Garcia | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Jason Day | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Martin Kaymer | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Padraig Harrington | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Rickie Fowler | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Webb Simpson | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Bo Van Pelt | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Ernie Els | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Graeme McDowell | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Peter Hanson | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Steve Stricker | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Bill Haas | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Henrik Stenson | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Jim Furyk | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| K.J. Choi | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Paul Casey | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Zach Johnson | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Francesco Molinari | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Matteo Manassero | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Retief Goosen | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Robert Garrigus | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Russell Henley | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Aaron Baddeley | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Angel Cabrera | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Kyle Stanley | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Martin Laird | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Alvaro Quiros | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ben Crane | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Charles Howell III | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| David Toms | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Fred Couples | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Gary Woodland | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| John Senden | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Johnson Wagner | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Kevin Na | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Paul Lawrie | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Robert Karlsson | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Sang-Moon Bae | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Sean O’Hair | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Stewart Cink | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Thomas Bjorn | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Trevor Immelman | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Vijay Singh | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Y.E. Yang | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Edoardo Molinari | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Mark Wilson | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Darren Clarke | 250/1 | 0.50% |
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I picked Brandt Snedeker to win a major at the start of January 2013. The US Masters could be the tournament for him to claim his first major.
However, he finished in the top 5 in the 2012 British Open and for some reason I have this gut feeling the 2013 British Open is a tournament he can really win!
Well the Tiger bettors never disappoint! They got their man and won’t give up.
Tiger hasn’t won a Masters since he turned 30. He isn’t going to win one at 37 either.
Phil has won twice since Tiger won last. Phil could very well win, but he probably shouldn’t be at the top.
I’d like to have Rory in my top 3, but after losing the first round today, I just don’t know. I think those Nike clubs, and perhaps more importantly, Nike balls if they aren’t directly hurting him, it is getting in his head. He could turn it around by April, but not likely.
Likewise, I would love to have Bubba at the top, but if I have to pick a Golf Boy, I’ll take Hunter.
Brandt is who I really like for this, if he can play a tournament or two pain free before the Masters.