Odds To Win The Masters - Feb 21, 2013

Over the last several years, I’ve tracked how the betting odds change in the months running up to the Masters, noting how the numbers ebb and flow with the week-in and week-out performance of the Tour players.

At present, Tiger Woods is the clear favorite, with odds of 11/2, or an effective 15.38% chance of winning. This, interestingly, is based on one missed cut and a runaway victory at the Farmers Insurance Open. I’d feel more comfortable about these numbers if Woods’ victory had happened anywhere but at Torrey Pines, a track he absolutely owns. Some courses have named holes. One through eighteen at Torrey are named “Tiger Woods’ First Hole” … “Tiger Woods’ Second Hole” …

Rory McIlroy is the bettors’ second at 7/1, or an effective 12.5% chance. This makes somewhat less sense than Tiger. McIlroy has yet to win in 2013. Or even contend. Then there’s that equipment change …

Phil Mickelson has a closet full of Green Jackets, so bettors with an eye on history have him at 10/1, or an effective 9.09%. As much as I love Phil, I fear he’s done winning Majors. I hope I’m wrong.

Then we get to some logical choices. Brandt Snedeker—who has played better than anyone in 2013—is 16/1 for a 5.88% chance of winning. Assuming he gets through the rib injury, I like this choice.

At 22/1, or a 4.35% chance of winning are a quartet of likely winners: Charl Schwartzel, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood and Luke Donald. Well, likely except for Westwood. I think he’s the new Colin Montgomerie—a fine, Hall-of-Fame quality player who will finish without a Major. I like Westwood’s style, but I fear it won’t happen for him.

The rest of the odds are below, courtesy of Bovada.LV. The % chances were calculated by The GolfBlogger for easier understanding by non-bettors.

PlayerOdds% Chance
Tiger Woods11/2    15.38%
Rory McIlroy7/1    12.50%
Phil Mickelson10/1    9.09%
Brandt Snedeker16/1    5.88%
Charl Schwartzel22/1    4.35%
Justin Rose22/1    4.35%
Lee Westwood22/1    4.35%
Luke Donald22/1    4.35%
Adam Scott25/1    3.85%
Louis Oosthuizen25/1    3.85%
Dustin Johnson28/1    3.45%
Bubba Watson33/1    2.94%
Hunter Mahan40/1    2.44%
Ian Poulter40/1    2.44%
Jason Dufner40/1    2.44%
Keegan Bradley40/1    2.44%
Matt Kuchar40/1    2.44%
Nick Watney40/1    2.44%
Sergio Garcia40/1    2.44%
Jason Day50/1    1.96%
Martin Kaymer50/1    1.96%
Padraig Harrington50/1    1.96%
Rickie Fowler50/1    1.96%
Webb Simpson50/1    1.96%
Bo Van Pelt66/1    1.49%
Ernie Els66/1    1.49%
Graeme McDowell66/1    1.49%
Peter Hanson66/1    1.49%
Steve Stricker66/1    1.49%
Bill Haas80/1    1.23%
Henrik Stenson80/1    1.23%
Jim Furyk80/1    1.23%
K.J. Choi80/1    1.23%
Paul Casey80/1    1.23%
Zach Johnson80/1    1.23%
Francesco Molinari100/1    0.99%
Geoff Ogilvy100/1    0.99%
Matteo Manassero100/1    0.99%
Retief Goosen100/1    0.99%
Robert Garrigus100/1    0.99%
Russell Henley100/1    0.99%
Aaron Baddeley125/1    0.79%
Angel Cabrera125/1    0.79%
Kyle Stanley125/1    0.79%
Martin Laird125/1    0.79%
Alvaro Quiros150/1    0.66%
Ben Crane150/1    0.66%
Charles Howell III150/1    0.66%
David Toms150/1    0.66%
Fred Couples150/1    0.66%
Fredrik Jacobson150/1    0.66%
Gary Woodland150/1    0.66%
John Senden150/1    0.66%
Johnson Wagner150/1    0.66%
Kevin Na150/1    0.66%
Miguel Angel Jimenez150/1    0.66%
Paul Lawrie150/1    0.66%
Robert Karlsson150/1    0.66%
Ryo Ishikawa150/1    0.66%
Sang-Moon Bae150/1    0.66%
Sean O’Hair150/1    0.66%
Stewart Cink150/1    0.66%
Thomas Bjorn150/1    0.66%
Trevor Immelman150/1    0.66%
Vijay Singh150/1    0.66%
Y.E. Yang150/1    0.66%
Edoardo Molinari200/1    0.50%
Mark Wilson200/1    0.50%
Darren Clarke250/1 0.50%
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2 thoughts on “Odds To Win The Masters - Feb 21, 2013”

  1. I picked Brandt Snedeker to win a major at the start of January 2013. The US Masters could be the tournament for him to claim his first major.

    However, he finished in the top 5 in the 2012 British Open and for some reason I have this gut feeling the 2013 British Open is a tournament he can really win!

    Reply
  2. Well the Tiger bettors never disappoint!  They got their man and won’t give up. 

    Tiger hasn’t won a Masters since he turned 30.  He isn’t going to win one at 37 either.

    Phil has won twice since Tiger won last.  Phil could very well win, but he probably shouldn’t be at the top. 

    I’d like to have Rory in my top 3, but after losing the first round today, I just don’t know.  I think those Nike clubs, and perhaps more importantly, Nike balls if they aren’t directly hurting him, it is getting in his head.  He could turn it around by April, but not likely.

    Likewise, I would love to have Bubba at the top, but if I have to pick a Golf Boy, I’ll take Hunter.

    Brandt is who I really like for this, if he can play a tournament or two pain free before the Masters.

    Reply

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