With just a few hours to go until the opening tee shots of the 2014 Masters, here are the final odds.
Adam Scott and Rory McIlroy are the punters’ favorites, coming in at 12/1. Both have played well thus far this season. History is against Scott, however, for a defending champion to win is a rare event.
Phil Mickelson has won three green jackets in his career, and is always the fan’s favorite. He’s the third favorite at 12/1. My partisan cheering for Phil aside, I actually think that he’s got a good chance. He seems exceptionally positive about this week (even for Phil, who is nearly always swimmingly positive.).
Jason Day was my favorite for the Masters at the beginning of the season, and he still would be, if not for that thumb injury. It strikes me that, for a power player, a thumb injury has to be crippling. At this point, it remains to be seen if he is recovered from the thumb, and can shake out the rust. I wonder if he actually warrants the 14/1 odds he has earned.
And then there’s Sergio. I actually think that this could be his year. He’s been playing very well, and seems to have found that stability and maturity that was sometimes lacking in his younger days. Sergio is thirty four now, and theoretically in his golfing prime.
As is usual for big tournaments like this, I look to the guys in the 33 to 50 to 1 range. The story of the Majors in recent years has been that of a diverse and sometimes unexpected winners. Here is the list of the last five years Major winners: Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson, Jason Dufner, Bubba Watson, Webb Simpson, Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy, Charl Schawartzel, Rory McIlroy, Darren Clarke, Keegan Bradley, Phil Mickelson, Graeme McDowell, Louis Oosthuizen, Martin Kaymer, Angel Cabrera, Stewart Cink, YE Yang.
Aside from Phil and Rory, there are no repeat performances, and—really—no one who was favored going into the week. You’re lying if you said you picked YE Yang, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, et. al.
So with that theory, I think Brandt Snedeker, Jason Dufner, Jordan Spieth and Keegan Bradley at 33/1 are pretty good choices. So are Hunter Mahan and Lee Westwood at 40/1.
The “sleeper” may be Angel Cabrera at 50/1. He seems to save his best performances for the biggest stages.
The complete odds are below, courtesy of Bovada.LV
|Miguel Angel Jimenez||200/1|
|Brendon De Jonge||250/1|
|Chang Woo Lee||750/1|
|Jose Maria Olazabal||1000/1|