I’ll give you three guesses as to who the favorite is for the 2012 PGA Championship, and the first two don’t count.
Tiger Woods is the bettors favorite for this year’s event at Kiawah Island, coming in at 8/1. In that, bettors are effectively giving him an 11% chance to win. That’s twice as good as the next two on the list, Rory McIlroy and Luke Donald, who at 18/1 are given a 5.26% chance of winning.
I really don’t understand the calculus on any of these. In spite of two wins this year, Tiger has not shown that he’s ready to win Majors. Rory has looked lost this season. And Donald has historically not shown an ability to play well on golf’s biggest stages.
The next four are slightly more plausible. Lee Westwood seems to be the guy everyone wants to win a Major—any Major. At this point, though, I think he may very well end up another Colin Montgomerie. Still, he apparently is planning on playing the PGA Tour next year, which means he’ll be “home” for three of the four Majors. Westwood is in at 20/1. Adam Scott, Jason Dufner and Justin Rose are at 28/1.
For this PGA Championship, I like Dustin Johnson. He’s a South Carolina guy and has come up just short in a couple of Majors. Bettors have him in at 33/1, or a 2.94% chance of winning, along with Webb Simpson, Louis Oosthuizen, Steve Stricker, Matt Kuchar, Keegan Bradley and Graeme McDowell. Frankly, I think the winner comes from someone in this group.
The complete odds are below, along with the equivalent percentage chance of winning, courtesy of Bovada.
Player | Odds | % Chance |
---|---|---|
Tiger Woods | 8/1 | 11.11% |
Rory McIlroy | 18/1 | 5.26% |
Luke Donald | 18/1 | 5.26% |
Lee Westwood | 20/1 | 4.76% |
Adam Scott | 28/1 | 3.45% |
Jason Dufner | 28/1 | 3.45% |
Justin Rose | 28/1 | 3.45% |
Webb Simpson | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Dustin Johnson | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Louis Oosthuizen | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Steve Stricker | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Matt Kuchar | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Keegan Bradley | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Graeme McDowell | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Hunter Mahan | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Bubba Watson | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Phil Mickelson | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Bo Van Pelt | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Jim Furyk | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Zach Johnson | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Padraig Harrington | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Jason Day | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Rickie Fowler | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Francesco Molinari | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Charl Schwartzel | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Nick Watney | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Nicolas Colsaerts | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Ernie Els | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Martin Kaymer | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Bill Haas | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Ian Poulter | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Sergio Garcia | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Martin Laird | 80/1 | 1.23% |
David Toms | 80/1 | 1.23% |
K.J. Choi | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Geoff Ogilvy | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Brandt Snedeker | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Scott Piercy | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Alex Noren | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Ryan Palmer | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Carl Pettersson | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Robert Garrigus | 80/1 | 1.23% |
John Senden | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Retief Goosen | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Thorbjorn Olesen | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Kyle Stanley | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Bud Cauley | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Aaron Baddeley | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Peter Hanson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Vijay Singh | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Rafael Cabrera -Bello | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Seung-yul Noh | 125/1 | 0.79% |
Ryan Moore | 125/1 | 0.79% |
Sean O’Hair | 125/1 | 0.79% |
Ben Crane | 125/1 | 0.79% |
Simon Dyson | 125/1 | 0.79% |
Spencer Levin | 125/1 | 0.79% |
Charley Hoffman | 125/1 | 0.79% |
Cameron Tringale | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Fredrik Jacobson | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Rory Sabbatini | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Branden Grace | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Jonathan Byrd | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Jeff Overton | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Scott Stallings | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Alvaro Quiros | 150/1 | 0.66% |
John Rollins | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Tim Clark | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Brian Davis | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Paul Lawrie | 150/1 | 0.66% |
J.J. Henry | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Thomas Aiken | 175/1 | 0.57% |
Matteo Manassero | 175/1 | 0.57% |
Anders Hansen | 175/1 | 0.57% |
Charlie Wi | 175/1 | 0.57% |
Gary Woodland | 175/1 | 0.57% |
Brendon De Jonge | 175/1 | 0.57% |
William Mcgirt | 175/1 | 0.57% |
Ben Curtis | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Tommy Gainey | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Charles Howell III | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Jimmy Walker | 200/1 | 0.50% |
John Huh | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Marcel Siem | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Ryo Ishikawa | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Davis Love III | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Miguel A. Jimenez | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Y-E Yang | 200/1 | 0.50% |
George Coetzee | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Pat Perez | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Kevin Na | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Thomas Bjorn | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Robert Karlsson | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Blake Adams | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Bryce Molder | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Johnson Wagner | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Jamie Donaldson | 250/1 | 0.40% |
K.T. Kim | 250/1 | 0.40% |
David Lynn | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Trevor Immelman | 250/1 | 0.40% |
John Daly | 250/1 | 0.40% |
D-A Points | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Jeev M Singh | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Bernd Wiesberger | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Pablo Larrazabal | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Ken Duke | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Chez Reavie | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Marc Leishman | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Greg Chalmers | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Stewart Cink | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Paul Casey | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Michael – H Thompson | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Gonzalo F-Castano | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Joost Luiten | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Darren Clarke | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Brendan Jones | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Marcus Fraser | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Robert Allenby | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Roger Chapman | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Sang-Moon Bae | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Thongchai Jaidee | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Mark Wilson | 300/1 | 0.33% |
George Mcneill | 400/1 | 0.25% |
Robert Rock | 400/1 | 0.25% |
Scott Verplank | 400/1 | 0.25% |
Angel Cabrera | 400/1 | 0.25% |
Ted Potter | 400/1 | 0.25% |
Lucas Glover | 400/1 | 0.25% |
Michael Hoey | 400/1 | 0.25% |
Jose Maria Olazabal | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Hiroyuki Fujita | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Toru Taniguchi | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Rich Beem | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Shaun Micheel | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Bob Sowards | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Mitch Lowe | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Mark Brown | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
Kelly Mitchum | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
Corey Prugh | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
Frank Bensel | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
Mark Brooks | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
Daniel Balin | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Mike Small | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Paul Scaletta | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Brian Cairns | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Alan Morin | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Rod Perry | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Bill Murchison | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Doug Wade | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Jeff Coston | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Brian Gaffney | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
Marty Jertson | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
Darrell Kestner | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
Matt Dobyns | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
Michael Frye | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
For some reason I think Justin Rose may have a chance to break through here. It’s a bit of an omen tip with England hosting the 2012 Olympics.
Justin is playing good golf and finished not far behind last week at the WGC Bridgestone event.
At this point, I’m leaning to Keegan Bradley for a successful defense. It’s time someone broke the streak.