If anyone is surprised that Tiger Woods is the odds-on favorite to win the Players Championship, they are living in a vacuum. The Striped One has won three times in 2013 and looks to be at the top of his game. That said, Tiger has not had an outstanding record at Sawgrass. He has won just once—in 2001. Given Tiger’s predilection for multiple wins on a small number of courses, I’d say his 7/1 odds likely are out of line.
Adam Scott, coming off his Masters win, is the bettors second choice at 16/1. Scott won the Players in 2004, so there’s sense in which history is also against him. No one has won multiple Players Championships since Hal Sutton in 1983 and 2000.
Rory McIlroy has shown signs of life in recent weeks, but I’m skeptical of his chances too. He’s in at 16/1.
At 22/1 are Luke Donald and Phil Mickelson. Phil had himself in a position to win at Quail Hollow last week, but blew up down the stretch. He doesn’t seem likely to me.
As usual, I look for someone in the middle. The talent is so deep these days—and incredibly deep in this particular field—that it seems to me that the usual elite suspects have no particular advantage.
The complete odds follow, courtesy of Bovada.LV
| Player | Odds | % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tiger Woods | 7/1 | 12.5 |
| Adam Scott | 16/1 | 5.8 |
| Rory McIlroy | 16/1 | 5.8 |
| Luke Donald | 22/1 | 4.35 |
| Phil Mickelson | 22/1 | 4.35 |
| Justin Rose | 25/1 | 3.85 |
| Lee Westwood | 25/1 | 3.85 |
| Matt Kuchar | 28/1 | 3.45 |
| Sergio Garcia | 28/1 | 3.45 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 33/1 | 2.94 |
| Graeme McDowell | 33/1 | 2.94 |
| Billy Horschel | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Jason Day | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Nick Watney | 40/1 | 2.44 |
| Bubba Watson | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Dustin Johnson | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Henrik Stenson | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Jason Dufner | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Jim Furyk | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Keegan Bradley | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Rickie Fowler | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Steve Stricker | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Webb Simpson | 50/1 | 1.96 |
| Bill Haas | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Ernie Els | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Hunter Mahan | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Ian Poulter | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Peter Hanson | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Ryan Moore | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Tim Clark | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Zach Johnson | 66/1 | 1.49 |
| Ben Crane | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| K.J. Choi | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Kevin Streelman | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Kyle Stanley | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Martin Kaymer | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Boo Weekley | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Carl Pettersson | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| D-A Points | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| David Lynn | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| David Toms | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Jimmy Walker | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Lucas Glover | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Martin Laird | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Robert Garrigus | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Russell Henley | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Angel Cabrera | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Ben Curtis | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Brendon De Jonge | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Charles Howell III | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Charley Hoffman | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Chris Kirk | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Harris English | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Jeff Overton | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Marc Leishman | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Padraig Harrington | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Pat Perez | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Branden Grace | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Brian Davis | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Brian Gay | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Cameron Tringale | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Francesco Molinari | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| John Huh | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| John Senden | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Kevin Stadler | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Luke Guthrie | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Mark Wilson | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Michael Thompson | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Retief Goosen | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Ryan Palmer | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Scott Piercy | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Stewart Cink | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Yong-Eun Yang | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Brian Harman | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Chris Stroud | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Derek Ernst | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| George Mcneill | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Graham Delaet | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Jason Kokrak | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| John Merrick | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Ken Duke | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Richard Lee | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Sean O’Hair | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Seung-yul Noh | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Vijay Singh | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Andres Romero | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Bob Estes | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Brendan Steele | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Brian Stuard | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Bryce Molder | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Bud Cauley | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Charlie Wi | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| David Hearn | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Davis Love III | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Greg Chalmers | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| James Hahn | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Jerry Kelly | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Josh Teater | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Justin Leonard | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Scott Brown | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Ted Potter Jr. | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Tommy Gainey | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Chad Campbell | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Charlie Beljan | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Daniel Summerhays | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| J.J. Henry | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Johnson Wagner | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Jonas Blixt | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Jonathan Byrd | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Kevin Chappell | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Martin Flores | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Matt Every | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Matt Jones | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Nicholas Thompson | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Ricky Barnes | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Robert Allenby | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Sang Moon Bae | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Scott Stallings | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| William Mcgirt | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Dicky Pride | 400/1 | 0.25 |
| James Driscoll | 400/1 | 0.25 |
| Roberto Castro | 400/1 | 0.25 |
| Scott Langley | 400/1 | 0.25 |
| Tim Herron | 400/1 | 0.25 |
| Casey Wittenberg | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Colt Knost | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| David Lingmerth | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Davis Mathis | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Erik Compton | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Greg Owen | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Jason Bohn | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Jeff Maggert | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Tom Gillis | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Troy Matteson | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Will Claxton | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Joe Daley | 1000/1 | 0.1 |
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Phil was awesome this past weekend – win or not. Playing in those conditions and with his condition, it seemed unlikely that he would be leading through 68 holes. It is like watching Freddie with his bad back trying to win the Masters – at some point in 4 days, it takes too much of a toll, but the fact they got to where they did was awesome.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Phil is in contention this weekend, but I don’t expect it. 22/1 might be about right for him.
What’s weird though is – Rickie, Graeme, and especially Snedeker are longer shots than Lee Westwood. Unless the Players is moved at the last minute out of the United States, Westwood is way in the wrong place.
I think Brandt Snedeker at 40/1 is terrific value as is Rickie Fowler at 50/1. Both in good form and capable of getting the job done here.