Tiger Woods now is the odds on favorite to win the 2012 US Open, and logically speaking, it stands to reason that he should be. He has as many wins this year as anyone on Tour (two), and while he isn’t showing the brilliance of old, he still can be categorized as a top Tour player. Even more in his favor is that the tournament is in California, in the Bay area, where Tiger has had much success before.
Tiger’s effective percentage chance of winning (14%), however, is twice that of McIlroy (7.69%), Westood (7.69%) and Donald (6.67%). That, to my mind is giving Woods too much credit. He is not twice as good as those gentlemen.
Another player who has great success in California is Phil Mickelson, who is seventh on the bettors list at 18/1 (5.56%). Phil has as usual had his ups and downs this year, but I think may be playing with a special desperation this year. You have to believe that this is his last best chance at a US Open title.
Dustin Johnson has gotten himself into the conversation with this past week’s win at the FedEx St. Jude. He, along with Jason Dufner comes in at 25/1 (3.85%).
For my part, I am of course hoping to see Phil take in his US Open at long last. I also would not be disappointed, however, to see a young player such as Dustin Johnson take the title.
The complete odds, along with the effective percentage chance to win are below, courtesy of Bovada.
| Player | Odds | % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tiger Woods | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Rory McIlroy | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Lee Westwood | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Luke Donald | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Phil Mickelson | 18/1 | 5.26% |
| Jason Dufner | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Dustin Johnson | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Justin Rose | 28/1 | 3.57% |
| Matt Kuchar | 30/1 | 3.23% |
| Rickie Fowler | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Adam Scott | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Zach Johnson | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Steve Stricker | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Hunter Mahan | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Sergio Garcia | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Bubba Watson | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Jim Furyk | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Webb Simpson | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Jason Day | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Martin Kaymer | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Charl Schwartzel | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Keegan Bradley | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Ernie Els | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Padraig Harrington | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Nick Watney | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Graeme McDowell | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Peter Hanson | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Bo Van Pelt | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Ian Poulter | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Bill Haas | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Francesco Molinari | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Martin Laird | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| K.J. Choi | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Ben Crane | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jonathan Byrd | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Aaron Baddeley | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Charles Howell III | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Henrik Stenson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kevin Na | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Carl Pettersson | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Sean O’Hair | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Davis Love III | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Alvaro Quiros | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Retief Goosen | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Vijay Singh | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Kyle Stanley | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Thomas Bjorn | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| John Senden | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| David Toms | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Y.E. Yang | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Tim Clark | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Brandon Grace | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Matteo Manassero | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Robert Karlsson | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Gary Woodland | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Stewart Cink | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Robert Garrigus | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Sang-Moon Bae | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Trevor Immelman | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| D.A. Points | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| John Huh | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Johnson Wagner | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Paul Casey | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Mark Wilson | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Alexander Noren | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Angel Cabrera | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Kyung Tae Kim | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Charlie Wi | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Blake Adams | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| George Coetzee | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Soren Kjeldsen | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Simon Dyson | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Robert Rock | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Bob Estes | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Edoardo Molinari | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| James Hahn | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Scott Piercy | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Jim Herman | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Kevin Streelman | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Peter Lawrie | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Hiroyuki Fujita | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Brice Garnett | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| David Mathis | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Stephen Ames | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Anders Hansen | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Lucas Glover | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Michael Allen | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Joe Durant | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Tim Herron | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Robert Castro | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Rod Pampling | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Morgan Hoffman | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Raphael Jacquelin | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Brendan Jones | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Scott Langley | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Michael Thompson | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Toru Taniguchi | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Casey Wittenberg | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Alex Cejka | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Darron Stiles | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Steve Marino | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Jason Bohn | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Hunter Haas | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Alistair Presnell | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Gregory Bourdy | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Matt Bettencourt | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Kevin Chappell | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Shane Bertsch | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Bill Lunde | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Chez Reavie | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Joe Ogilvie | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| John Peterson | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Paul Claxton | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Mikko Ilonen | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Nicholas Thompson | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Martin Flores | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Lee Slattery | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Brian Harman | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Marc Warren | 750/1 | 0.13% |
| Tadahiro Takayama | 750/1 | 0.13% |
| J.B. Park | 750/1 | 0.13% |
| Steve Lebrun | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Edward Loar | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Daniel Miernicki | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Jeff Curl | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Michael Campbell | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Beau Hossler | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Dong-Hwan Lee | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Aaron Watkins | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Matthew Baldwin | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Anthony Summers | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Brian Rowell | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Tommy Biershenk | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Cole Howard | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Jesse Mueller | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Olin Browne | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Hunter Hamrick | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Dennis Miller | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Mark McCormick | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Samuel Osborne | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
| Casey Martin | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
| Cameron Wilson | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
| Brooke Koepka | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
| Brian Gaffney | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
| Scott Smith | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
| Tim Weinhart | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
| Nick Sherwood | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
| Alberto Sanchez 2500/1 | 0.04% |
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