Like the NCAA Tournament, I think that setting odds for the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship must be exceedingly difficult. There are just so many opportunities for upset. In a regular Tour event, a player can overcome a single bad day and come back to win. In the Match Play Championship, its one-and-done. That’s why television producers don’t really like the format—and why it’s among the most exciting events golf has to offer.
Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy are the bettors’ favorites to win the tournament, coming in at 11-1. Luke Donald and Lee Westwood are in just behind at 16/1. The favorites round out with Sergio Garcia at 20/1. Martin Kaymer at 22/1, and at 28/1, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter, Adam Scott and Steve Stricker.
Back in January, when I predicted that Tiger wouldn’t win a Tour event this year (his short field tournament and the Tavistock Cup don’t count), I forgot about the WGC Match Play. If he’s going to win one, this will be it. But it’ll be tough. His opponent intimidating Mojo died with YE Yang, and it is now all about talent and focus. Donald, with all his consistency, is a good bet. Consistency pays off in match play.
But of all the ones at the head of the class, Garcia stands out. He absolutely love match play, and has shown flashes of his old brilliance in recent months. His low round on Sunday at the Northern Trust was impressive. He was a couple of errant shots from getting into the playoff.
There’s also an oversight, I think, in that Mr. Match Play, Geoff Ogilvy, is a 50-1 shot. That’s a bet I’d take. Ogilvy has the highest match winning percentage of anyone in the history of the WGC.
The complete odds for the 2012 WGC Accenture Match Play Championship are below, courtesy of Bovada:
|Bo Van Pelt||66/1|
|Rafael Cabrera -Bello||150/1|
|Miguel Angel Jimenez||150/1|