With the 2015 US Open fast approaching, Rory McIlroy is the clear favorite at 4/1. That means bettors are effectively giving him a 20% chance of winning the championship. I don’t think it’s a bad bet. When Rory is on, he is as dominant as Tiger ever was.
Unlike Tiger, however, Rory is not as relentlessly consistent in that play. Given his relentless playing schedule as of late, it is not irrational to suggest that he might be over valued for the US Open.
Jordan Spieth follows Rory at 7/1, for an effective 12.5% probability of winning the US Open. Spieth appears to be an extraordinary talent, but I am not yet ready to anoint him as the next great star. The list of people anointed as the “Next Tiger Woods” is long and none has panned out.
Surprisingly, Tiger Woods is the third favorite, in at 14/1. Has anyone seen this guy play lately? Right now Tiger is at best a slightly above average Tour player.
Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson are in at 16/1. That translates to a 5.88% probability of winning. Thus far, it doesn’t seem to me as though Scott is having the kind of season that warrants this spot at the table. He has just one top ten in nine starts and is 100th in FedEx Cup rankings. Johnson, on the other hand, has five top tens in ten starts, and is 10th on the FedEx Cup list.
After Rory, Rickie Fowler would be my choice. Oddsmakers have him at 18/1, for an effective 5.26% chance. Fowler had an extraordinary run in last year’s Majors, with top five finishes in each and the lowest combined score in relation to par. Fowler was -32 in last year’s Majors, five clear of Rory at -27. This year, he is fifteenth in the FedEx Cup, with a victory at the hotly contested Players Championship.
Phil Mickelson has not had a good year thus far, so I don’t really understand how he is the eighth most favored player at 20/1. He had a second at The Masters and a fourth at the Wells Fargo but otherwise has not fared very well. Still, given his history at the US Open, you can’t count Phil out. Phil has six second place finishes — one of these days, the ball has got to break his way on Sunday.
The top ten is rounded out by Jason Day, Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia at 22/1. I’ve liked Day for a Major for several years; he seems play well in them — or at least he did until his injury. Rose is a real threat right now. As for Sergio, I’m starting to believe he is the Spanish Colin Montgomerie.
The complete US Open Odds: 2015 are below:
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 4/1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 7/1 |
| Tiger Woods | 14/1 |
| Adam Scott | 16/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 16/1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 18/1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 20/1 |
| Jason Day | 22/1 |
| Justin Rose | 22/1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 22/1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 25/1 |
| Bubba Watson | 28/1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 28/1 |
| Jimmy Walker | 33/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 33/1 |
| Patrick Reed | 33/1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 40/1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 40/1 |
| Jim Furyk | 40/1 |
| Graeme McDowell | 50/1 |
| Keegan Bradley | 50/1 |
| Paul Casey | 50/1 |
| Billy Horschel | 66/1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 66/1 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 66/1 |
| Hunter Mahan | 66/1 |
| Jason Dufner | 66/1 |
| JB Holmes | 66/1 |
| Lee Westwood | 66/1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 66/1 |
| Luke Donald | 66/1 |
| Ryan Moore | 66/1 |
| Victor Dubuisson | 66/1 |
| Webb Simpson | 66/1 |
| Zach Johnson | 66/1 |
| Bill Haas | 80/1 |
| Chris Kirk | 80/1 |
| Gary Woodland | 80/1 |
| Graham DeLaet | 80/1 |
| Harris English | 80/1 |
| Ian Poulter | 80/1 |
| Steve Stricker | 80/1 |
| Brendon Todd | 100/1 |
| Ernie Els | 100/1 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 100/1 |
| Marc Leishman | 100/1 |
| Angel Cabrera | 125/1 |
| Brendon de Jonge | 125/1 |
| Francesco Molinari | 125/1 |
| John Senden | 125/1 |
| Joost Luiten | 125/1 |
| Kevin Na | 125/1 |
| Nick Watney | 125/1 |
| Russell Henley | 125/1 |
| Ryan Palmer | 125/1 |
| Seung-Yul Noh | 125/1 |
| Shane Lowry | 125/1 |
| Stephen Gallacher | 125/1 |
| Thomas Bjorn | 125/1 |
| Thorbjørn Olesen | 125/1 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 150/1 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 150/1 |
| Jonas Blixt | 150/1 |
| K.J. Choi | 150/1 |
| Kevin Chappell | 150/1 |
| Kevin Stadler | 150/1 |
| Matt Every | 150/1 |
| Matt Jones | 150/1 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 150/1 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 150/1 |
| Retief Goosen | 150/1 |
| Stewart Cink | 150/1 |
| Thongchai Jaidee | 150/1 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 200/1 |
| Boo Weekley | 200/1 |
| David Toms | 200/1 |
| Erik Compton | 200/1 |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 200/1 |
| Kevin Streelman | 200/1 |
| Matteo Manassero | 200/1 |
| Padraig Harrington | 200/1 |
| Danny Willett | 250/1 |
| Y.E. Yang | 300/1 |
| Darren Clarke | 500/1 |
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