US Open Odds – 2015


With the 2015 US Open fast approaching, Rory McIlroy is the clear favorite at 4/1. That means bettors are effectively giving him a 20% chance of winning the championship. I don’t think it’s a bad bet. When Rory is on, he is as dominant as Tiger ever was.

Unlike Tiger, however, Rory is not as relentlessly consistent in that play. Given his relentless playing schedule as of late, it is not irrational to suggest that he might be over valued for the US Open.

Jordan Spieth follows Rory at 7/1, for an effective 12.5% probability of winning the US Open. Spieth appears to be an extraordinary talent, but I am not yet ready to anoint him as the next great star. The list of people anointed as the “Next Tiger Woods” is long and none has panned out.

Surprisingly, Tiger Woods is the third favorite, in at 14/1. Has anyone seen this guy play lately? Right now Tiger is at best a slightly above average Tour player.

Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson are in at 16/1. That translates to a 5.88% probability of winning. Thus far, it doesn’t seem to me as though Scott is having the kind of season that warrants this spot at the table. He has just one top ten in nine starts and is 100th in FedEx Cup rankings. Johnson, on the other hand, has five top tens in ten starts, and is 10th on the FedEx Cup list.

After Rory, Rickie Fowler would be my choice. Oddsmakers have him at 18/1, for an effective 5.26% chance. Fowler had an extraordinary run in last year’s Majors, with top five finishes in each and the lowest combined score in relation to par. Fowler was -32 in last year’s Majors, five clear of Rory at -27. This year, he is fifteenth in the FedEx Cup, with a victory at the hotly contested Players Championship.

Phil Mickelson has not had a good year thus far, so I don’t really understand how he is the eighth most favored player at 20/1. He had a second at The Masters and a fourth at the Wells Fargo but otherwise has not fared very well. Still, given his history at the US Open, you can’t count Phil out. Phil has six second place finishes — one of these days, the ball has got to break his way on Sunday.

The top ten is rounded out by Jason Day, Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia at 22/1. I’ve liked Day for a Major for several years; he seems play well in them — or at least he did until his injury. Rose is a real threat right now. As for Sergio, I’m starting to believe he is the Spanish Colin Montgomerie.

The complete US Open Odds: 2015 are below:

Rory McIlroy4/1 
Jordan Spieth7/1 
Tiger Woods14/1 
Adam Scott16/1 
Dustin Johnson16/1 
Rickie Fowler18/1 
Phil Mickelson20/1 
Jason Day22/1 
Justin Rose22/1 
Sergio Garcia22/1 
Henrik Stenson25/1 
Bubba Watson28/1 
Martin Kaymer28/1 
Jimmy Walker33/1 
Matt Kuchar33/1 
Patrick Reed33/1 
Brooks Koepka40/1 
Hideki Matsuyama40/1 
Jim Furyk40/1 
Graeme McDowell50/1 
Keegan Bradley50/1 
Paul Casey50/1 
Billy Horschel66/1 
Brandt Snedeker66/1 
Charl Schwartzel66/1 
Hunter Mahan66/1 
Jason Dufner66/1 
JB Holmes66/1 
Lee Westwood66/1 
Louis Oosthuizen66/1 
Luke Donald66/1 
Ryan Moore66/1 
Victor Dubuisson66/1 
Webb Simpson66/1 
Zach Johnson66/1 
Bill Haas80/1 
Chris Kirk80/1 
Gary Woodland80/1 
Graham DeLaet80/1 
Harris English80/1 
Ian Poulter80/1 
Steve Stricker80/1 
Brendon Todd100/1 
Ernie Els100/1 
Jamie Donaldson100/1 
Marc Leishman100/1 
Angel Cabrera125/1 
Brendon de Jonge125/1 
Francesco Molinari125/1 
John Senden125/1 
Joost Luiten125/1 
Kevin Na125/1 
Nick Watney125/1 
Russell Henley125/1 
Ryan Palmer125/1 
Seung-Yul Noh125/1 
Shane Lowry125/1 
Stephen Gallacher125/1 
Thomas Bjorn125/1 
Thorbjørn Olesen125/1 
Bo Van Pelt150/1 
Geoff Ogilvy150/1 
Jonas Blixt150/1 
K.J. Choi150/1 
Kevin Chappell150/1 
Kevin Stadler150/1 
Matt Every150/1 
Matt Jones150/1 
Miguel Angel Jimenez150/1 
Nicolas Colsaerts150/1 
Retief Goosen150/1 
Stewart Cink150/1 
Thongchai Jaidee150/1 
Bernd Wiesberger200/1 
Boo Weekley200/1 
David Toms200/1 
Erik Compton200/1 
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano200/1 
Kevin Streelman200/1 
Matteo Manassero200/1 
Padraig Harrington200/1 
Danny Willett250/1 
Y.E. Yang300/1 
Darren Clarke500/1 

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