Trying to decide who to pick for my fantasy golf team for the US Open, I took a look at the latest odds for the US Open favorites.
The betting crowd has made Rory McIlroy the favorite, at 7/1 odds, with a 12.5 percent chance to win. That’s a bit of a slide, as he was given a 4/1, or 20% chance of winning back in May.
I don’t know how you can assemble a fantasy team without Rory McIlroy.
Jordan Spieth continues to be in second place. The newly crowned Masters Champion is in at 8/1, or a 11 percent chance. A month ago, he was 7/1.
I think I’m going to leave Spieth off my team for now. It is, in my mind, too soon for the youngster to win back-to-back Majors. He’s good, but he’s no Rory or Tiger.
Next is a huge swing. In May, Tiger Woods was in third at 14/1. Now, it’s Phil at 16/1, or an effective 5.8 chance of winning. Woods now is 50/1, with a 1.9 percent chance of winning.
Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler all are in at 18/1, or an effective 5.2 percent chance of winning. A month ago, the 4 – 6 positions were held by Adam Scott, Johnson and Fowler.
Of these, I continue to like Rickie Fowler to win a Major. He was very consistent in the Majors last year, and finished T12 as this year’s Masters.
Johnson could conceivably do very well at Chambers Bay. His length off the tee might bake the difference.
Scott has fallen off to the 10th position, with odds of 28/1, along with Bubba Watson.
Below, you’ll find a chart of the players in the US Open field, the fractional odds — and the effective percentage chance to win, which I have calculated for you (actually, my spreadsheet calculated them, but I set it up).
Show 102550100 entriesSearch:
| Player | Odds | % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 7/1 | 12.5 |
| Jordan Spieth | 8/1 | 11.1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 16/1 | 5.8 |
| Dustin Johnson | 18/1 | 5.2 |
| Justin Rose | 18/1 | 5.2 |
| Rickie Fowler | 18/1 | 5.2 |
| Henrik Stenson | 25/1 | 3.8 |
| Adam Scott | 28/1 | 3.4 |
| Bubba Watson | 28/1 | 3.4 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 28/1 | 3.4 |
| Jason Day | 33/1 | 2.9 |
| Jim Furyk | 33/1 | 2.9 |
| Jimmy Walker | 33/1 | 2.9 |
| Sergio Garcia | 33/1 | 2.9 |
| Martin Kaymer | 40/1 | 2.4 |
| Matt Kuchar | 40/1 | 2.4 |
| Patrick Reed | 40/1 | 2.4 |
| Billy Horschel | 50/1 | 1.9 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 50/1 | 1.9 |
| Brooks Koepka | 50/1 | 1.9 |
| Ryan Moore | 50/1 | 1.9 |
| Tiger Woods | 50/1 | 1.9 |
| Byeong Hun An | 66/1 | 1.4 |
| Keegan Bradley | 66/1 | 1.4 |
| Lee Westwood | 66/1 | 1.4 |
| Paul Casey | 66/1 | 1.4 |
| Zach Johnson | 66/1 | 1.4 |
| Bill Haas | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Chris Kirk | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Graeme McDowell | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Hunter Mahan | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Ian Poulter | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| J.B. Holmes | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Jason Dufner | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Kevin Kisner | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Kevin Na | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Luke Donald | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Ryan Palmer | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Webb Simpson | 80/1 | 1.23 |
| Charley Hoffman | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Danny Willett | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Francesco Molinari | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Gary Woodland | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Marc Leishman | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Shane Lowry | 100/1 | 0.99 |
| Branden Grace | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Brendon Todd | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Russell Henley | 125/1 | 0.79 |
| Alexander Noren | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Ben Martin | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Brian Harman | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Ernie Els | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| George Mcneill | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Michael Putnam | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Robert Streb | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Tony Finau | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Victor Dubuisson | 150/1 | 0.66 |
| Angel Cabrera | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Cameron Tringale | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| David Hearn | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Erik Compton | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| John Senden | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Joost Luiten | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Marc Warren | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Matt Every | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 200/1 | 0.5 |
| Alexander Levy | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Colin Montgomerie | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Danny Lee | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| George Coetzee | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Lucas Glover | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Morgan Hoffman | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Retief Goosen | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Stephen Gallacher | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Thongchai Jaidee | 250/1 | 0.4 |
| Camilo Villegas | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Daniel Summerhays | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Marcel Siem | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Thomas Aiken | 300/1 | 0.33 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 400/1 | 0.25 |
| Andres Romero | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Beau Hossler | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Billy Hurley III | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Blayne Barber | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Brad Fritsch | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Brandon Hagy | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Cameron Smith | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Charlie Beljan | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| Cody Gribble | 500/1 | 0.2 |
| D.A. Points | 500/1 | 0.2 |
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