Golfweek has figured it all out:
Mickelson can take the top spot if he
- wins the PGA
- is runner up with Woods lower than third
- finishes third with Woods lower than 11
- finishes solo fourth with Woods outside the top 46
- finishes in a two way tie for fourth, while Woods misses the cut
I frankly don’t see any of those scenarios panning out.
Stricker has to win, with Woods out of the top 24 and Mickelson out of the top there.
Oddly enough, I think this is a more likely scenario.
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What is with this ranking? Last week Phil would make it if he finished 4th and Tiger finished below 37. This week Phil has to do fourth, and Tiger below 46. Huh? Both had crappy overall finishes last week, but Tiger was awful all four days, and finished second to last and Phil just really had one bad day to finish mid-pack.
Since this is the hardest field, if Phil manages to finish in the top 5 that is really good, and so why would Tiger have to finish even lower than he would have last week?
I can’t wrap my mathematical mind around this. Now I can buy the equal betting odds for Tiger and Phil in my mind, but I wouldn’t give either of them 7/1 odds.
Now as for Phil, I don’t give a crap this weekend. I can’t handle the stress and I have my own golf tournament to play in! I am still pulling for JD though.