Jason Day, who has won twice in 2016, is the odds-on favorite to win the 2016 Masters. Oddsmakers put him at 7/1, or an effective 12.5% chance of winning. At 21st in driving distance and 4th in strokes gained putting, Jason Day seems a likely candidate. Driving and putting are keys at Augusta.
Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are both in at 8/1, or an effective 11.11% chance of winning. Other than his name and reputation, I don’t see why McIlroy is ranked so highly. He currently is ranked 100th in strokes gained putting on Tour, and 148th in driving accuracy. Not good.
Spieth, in spite of a win in Hawaii, has also not had a good start to the year. He is 25th in strokes gained putting, and 153rd in greens in regulation. If Spieth manages to win the Masters, it will be an amazing feat. I think it more likely that he just makes the cut this year.
Bubba Watson, who has won two of the last four Masters is in at 10/1, or a 9.09% chance of winning. Bubba has won two of the last four Masters, so in keeping with that trend, this may be his year. Further, six of the last thirteen Masters winners have been left-handers. A trend? Perhaps. Bubba is at or near the top of a lot of statistical categories on the PGA TOUR right now: 1st in Greens in Regulation; 1st in Strokes Gained Tee To Green; 2nd in Ball Striking; 4th in Driving Distance. His weakness: 142nd in Strokes Gained Putting. That’s not good on those Augusta greens.
I’m surprised that Adam Scott isn’t ahead of McIlroy and Spieth in the odds. He has been given an 11/1, or an 8.33% chance of winning. Scott has two firsts, and two seconds going back to November 2015. He is 1st in Total Strokes Gained, 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee To Green and Scoring Average; 6th in Greens in Regulation and; 11th in Driving Distance. Surprisingly, given his switch from the belly putter, he is as high as 48th in Strokes Gained Putting. That’s more than twice as good as McIlroy and Watson.
Scott is a good pick for the win this year.
A final note, though: Over the last ten years, the mean of the odds for the eventual Masters winner was 24/1. The median was 40/1. The favorite has not won. Mickelson was twice the second-favorite at 9/1. Take him out of the equation and the mean was 36/1, while the median was 44/1.
The complete Odds To Win The Masters 2016 follows.
|Miguel Angel Jimenez||500/1||0.2|
|Davis Love III||500/1||0.2|