Odds To Win The Masters 2016

oddsHere is a final look at the odds to win the Masters 2016:

Jason Day, who has won twice in 2016, is the odds-on favorite to win the 2016 Masters. Oddsmakers put him at 7/1, or an effective 12.5% chance of winning. At 21st in driving distance and 4th in strokes gained putting, Jason Day seems a likely candidate. Driving and putting are keys at Augusta.

Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are both in at 8/1, or an effective 11.11% chance of winning. Other than his name and reputation, I don’t see why McIlroy is ranked so highly. He currently is ranked 100th in strokes gained putting on Tour, and 148th in driving accuracy. Not good.

Spieth, in spite of a win in Hawaii, has also not had a good start to the year. He is 25th in strokes gained putting, and 153rd in greens in regulation. If Spieth manages to win the Masters, it will be an amazing feat. I think it more likely that he just makes the cut this year.

Bubba Watson, who has won two of the last four Masters is in at 10/1, or a 9.09% chance of winning. Bubba has won two of the last four Masters, so in keeping with that trend, this may be his year. Further, six of the last thirteen Masters winners have been left-handers. A trend? Perhaps. Bubba is at or near the top of a lot of statistical categories on the PGA TOUR right now: 1st in Greens in Regulation; 1st in Strokes Gained Tee To Green; 2nd in Ball Striking; 4th in Driving Distance. His weakness: 142nd in Strokes Gained Putting. That’s not good on those Augusta greens.

I’m surprised that Adam Scott isn’t ahead of McIlroy and Spieth in the odds. He has been given an 11/1, or an 8.33% chance of winning. Scott has two firsts, and two seconds going back to November 2015.  He is 1st in Total Strokes Gained, 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee To Green and Scoring Average; 6th in Greens in Regulation and; 11th in Driving Distance. Surprisingly, given his switch from the belly putter, he is as high as 48th in Strokes Gained Putting. That’s more than twice as good as McIlroy and Watson.

Scott is a good pick for the win this year.

A final note, though: Over the last ten years, the mean of the odds for the eventual Masters winner was 24/1. The median was 40/1. The favorite has not won. Mickelson was twice the second-favorite at 9/1. Take him out of the equation and the mean was 36/1, while the median was 44/1.

The complete Odds To Win The Masters 2016 follows.

PlayerOdds% Chance
Jason Day7/112.5
Rory Mcilroy8/111.11
Jordan Spieth8/111.11
Bubba Watson10/19.09
Adam Scott11/18.33
Rickie Fowler16/15.88
Phil Mickelson20/14.76
Dustin Johnson20/14.76
Justin Rose28/13.45
Louis Oostuizen28/13.45
Henrik Stenson28/13.45
Charl Schwartzel35/12.78
Hideki Matsuyama40/12.44
Patrick Reed50/11.96
Brand Snedeker55/11.79
Sergio Garcia60/11.64
Zach Johnson60/11.64
Paul Casey70/11.41
Marc Leishman70/11.41
Daniel Willett70/11.41
Branden Grace75/11.32
Matt Kuchar75/1132
Brooks Koepka80/11.23
Jimmy Walker90/11.1
Bill Haas100/10.99
Justin Thomas125/10.79
Jason Dufner125/10.79
JB Holmes150/10.66
Shane Lowry150/10.66
Kevin Kisner150/10.66
Ryan Moore150/10.66
Andy Sullivan150/10.66
Charley Hoffman150/10.66
Ian Poulter175/10.57
Victor Dubuisson175/10.57
Luke Donald175/10.57
Jonas Blixt175/10.57
Martin Kaymer175/10.57
Angel Cabrera175/10.57
Webb Simpson175/10.57
Billy Horschel200/10.5
David Lingmerth200/10.5
Hunter Mahan200/10.5
Keegan Bradley200/10.5
Lee Westwood200/10.5
Bernd Wiesberger200/10.5
Graham Delaet225/10.44
Chris Kirk225/10.44
Harris English225/10.44
Kevin Na225/10.44
Nick Watney225/10.44
Russell Henley225/10.44
Danny Lee225/10.44
Steve Stricker225/10.44
Gary Woodland225/10.44
Bryson Dechambeau225/10.44
Kiradech Aphibarnrat275/10.36
Jim Furyk275/10.36
Matthew Fitzpatrick275/10.36
Ryan Palmer275/10.36
Emiliano Grillo275/10.36
Jamie Donaldson275/10.36
Graeme McDowell275/10.36
Anirban Lahiri275/10.36
Ernie Els300/10.33
Kevin Streelman300/10.33
Russell Knox350/10.28
Brendon Todd400/10.25
Robert Streb400/10.25
Padraig Harrington400/10.25
Scott Piercy400/10.25
Fred Couples400/10.25
Troy Merritt450/10.22
Thongchai Jaidee500/10.2
Miguel Angel Jimenez500/10.2
Vijay Singh500/10.2
Davis Love III500/10.2
Odds To Win The Masters - April 3, 2016. SOURCE: BOVADA.LV
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