I wouldn’t put any money on Tiger Woods winning this year’s WGC-Match Play Championship, but apparently much of the betting public disagrees with me. Tiger is the favorite this week, at 10/1 odds. He’s followed by some more likely candidates in Martin Kaymer and Paul Casey at 14/1, Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson at 16/1, and Lee Westwood at 18/1. The guy I’d bet on, though, is Ian Poulter. He won the event in 2010, was T9 in 2009, T17 in 2008 and T9 in 2007. He seem to thrive in match play. At the last Ryder Cup, he thrashed Matt Kuchar 5 and 4 in the final round singles.
The complete odds for the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship are below, courtesy of Bodog, the world’s largest betting destination.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tiger Woods | 10/1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 14/1 |
| Paul Casey | 14/1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 16/1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 16/1 |
| Lee Westwood | 18/1 |
| Graeme McDowell | 22/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 25/1 |
| Ian Poulter | 25/1 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 25/1 |
| Luke Donald | 28/1 |
| Nick Watney | 28/1 |
| Steve Stricker | 28/1 |
| Alvaro Quiros | 33/1 |
| Ernie Els | 33/1 |
| Hunter Mahan | 33/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 33/1 |
| Retief Goosen | 33/1 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 40/1 |
| Jim Furyk | 40/1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 40/1 |
| Adam Scott | 50/1 |
| Bill Haas | 50/1 |
| Francesco Molinari | 50/1 |
| Justin Rose | 50/1 |
| K.J. Choi | 50/1 |
| Robert Allenby | 50/1 |
| Robert Karlsson | 50/1 |
| Tim Clark | 50/1 |
| Stewart Cink | 50/1 |
| Padraig Harrington | 40/1 |
| Anthony Kim | 66/1 |
| Ben Crane | 66/1 |
| Bubba Watson | 66/1 |
| Camilo Villegas | 66/1 |
| Edoardo Molinari | 66/1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 66/1 |
| Martin Laird | 66/1 |
| Ross Fisher | 50/1 |
| Ryan Moore | 66/1 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 80/1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 80/1 |
| Jason Day | 80/1 |
| Jeff Overton | 80/1 |
| Matteo Manassero | 80/1 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 80/1 |
| Peter Hanson | 80/1 |
| Ryan Palmer | 80/1 |
| Y-E Yang | 80/1 |
| Zach Johnson | 80/1 |
| Anders Hansen | 100/1 |
| Jonathan Byrd | 100/1 |
| Mark Wilson | 100/1 |
| Sean O’Hair | 80/1 |
| Richard Green | 100/1 |
| Charley Hoffman | 125/1 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 125/1 |
| Seung-yul Noh | 150/1 |
| Thomas Bjorn | 150/1 |
| Heath Slocum | 175/1 |
| Kim Kyung- Tae | 175/1 |
| Hiroyuki Fujita | 200/1 |
| Yuta Ikeda | 200/1 |
| Brendan Jones | 250/1 |
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Tiger may make it to the top of his division, I doubt it, but by hanging by a thread to #3, these guys are conveniently not in his bracket: Westwood, Kaymer, McIllroy, Mickelson, McDowell, and your pick, Poulter.
Tiger may have Harrington in the 2nd and Johnson or Watson 3rd match.
I haven’t done an in depth analysis, but at first glance, I am thinking this may be the week that Tiger moves to #4, at least. If McDowell and Mickelson play for the Hogan Division and Tiger loses in the first couple matches, perhaps Tiger could go to #5 with both leaping him.
I am about as surprised as I can get regarding Tiger losing, which is to say, not much, but a little surprised—and of course happily so.
Phil and GMac won strong, I think they will be playing each other on Saturday morning. I still don’t have the math figured, maybe someone later will post, but surely if either Phil or GMac wins, they will displace Tiger at #3. If Phil beats GMac and Phil wins it all, then that would move each of them up as far as possible.
But I don’t see Phil beating GMac.
I think at the end we will be seeing Bubba, Gmac, Rmac (Rory) and Luke Donald. I think Gmac will win it all, but if not GMac, then RMac.