It’s Tiger’s party, so I’m not surprised that Eldrick is the favorite to win the 2012 AT&T National at Congressional. Given his collapse in the US Open two weeks ago, however, I am surprised to find that the betting public says that he’s more than twice as likely (5/1 ; 16.67%) to win as Hunter Mahan (12/1; 7.69%) and three times as likely as such stellar players as Dustin Johnson and Jim Furyk.
That said, the competition in this event isn’t very deep, all things considered. The headliners are as above, plus: Adams Scott (20/1); KJ Choi, Nick Watney and Ryan Palmer (33/1); Jason Day and Ryan Moore (40/1). That seems likely to me to offer Tiger a better than average chance to win.
In fact, I expect him to win. He is, after all, still a top ten Tour player.
The complete list is below, courtesy of Bovada.
| Player | Odds | % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tiger Woods | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| Hunter Mahan | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Dustin Johnson | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Jim Furyk | 18/1 | 5.26% |
| Adam Scott | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Bo Van Pelt | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| K.J. Choi | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Nick Watney | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Ryan Palmer | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Jason Day | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Ryan Moore | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Ben Curtis | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Bryce Molder | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| J.B. Holmes | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Martin Laird | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Robert Garrigus | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Ben Crane | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Brian Davis | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Cameron Tringale | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Chad Campbell | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Charles Howell III | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Charley Hoffman | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Davis Love III | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Jeff Overton | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Marc Leishman | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Pat Perez | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Rory Sabbatini | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Seung-yul Noh | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Andres Romero | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Blake Adams | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Brendon De Jonge | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Bud Cauley | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Camilo Villegas | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Charlie Wi | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Greg Owen | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Harris English | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| John Huh | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Kevin Chappell | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Kyle Stanley | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Michael – H Thompson | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Robert Allenby | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Spencer Levin | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Vijay Singh | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Y-E Yang | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Chris Kirk | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| D-A Points | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Greg Chalmers | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Heath Slocum | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kevin Stadler | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kevin Streelman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Matt Every | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Nick O’Hern | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Scott Piercy | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Sean O’Hair | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Tommy Gainey | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Boo Weekley | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Brandt Jobe | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Brian Gay | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Chris Stroud | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Danny Lee | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Gary Woodland | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| George Mcneill | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| James Driscoll | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| John Merrick | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Johnson Wagner | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Kyung-Tae Kim | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Sang-Moon Bae | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Stewart Cink | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Trevor Immelman | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Beau Hossler | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Bob Estes | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Brendan Steele | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Chez Reavie | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Daniel Summerhays | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| David Mathis | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Graham Delaet | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| J.J. Henry | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Jimmy Walker | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Jordan Speith | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Lucas Glover | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ricky Barnes | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Rod Pampling | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Roberto Castro | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Angel Cabrera | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Billy Mayfair | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Brian Harman | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Chris Couch | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Dicky Pride | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Jeff Maggert | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| John Mallinger | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Martin Flores | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Tim Herron | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Tom Gillis | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Chris Dimarco | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Kris Blanks | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Kyle Reifers | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Will Claxton | 250/1 | 0.40% |
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