Amazing. In spite of all the evidence to the contrary, the betting public believes that Tiger Woods is the prohibitive favorite to win the 2012 Open Championship. He’s currently set at 6/1, which is effectively saying that he has a 14% chance to win the Open Championship.
Lee Westwood is the second choice, coming in at 11/1, or an 8.33% chance. I suspect there are no tree canopies to derail his round at the Open Championship.
Then, almost as unbelievably as Tiger, is Rory McIlroy. Bettors have him at 12/1, or 7.69%. Has no one been watching him this year? He looks like a lost puppy, not a Major Championship winner.
For me, it takes until the fourth position—Luke Donald at 14/1 (6/67%)—for the odds to make sense. I think that if Donald will win a Major, it’ll be at an Open Championship.
The Mickelson odds (20/1, 4.76%) makes only slightly more sense to me than Tiger’s. Mathematically, zero sense times anything is still zero sense.
Rounding out the top ten are Dustin Johnson (25/1, 3.85%), Graeme McDowell (28/1, 3.45%), Justin Rose (28/1, 3.45%), Martin Kaymer (28/1, 3.45%), Padraig Harrington (28/1, 3.45%), Bubba Watson (33/1, 2.94%) and Ernie Els (33/1, 2.94%).
In spite of his meltdown at Olympic, I like Ernie Els in this one.
The complete odds and effective percentage chance to win are below, courtesy of Bovada.
| Player | Odds | % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tiger Woods | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Lee Westwood | 11/1 | 8.33% |
| Rory McIlroy | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Luke Donald | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Phil Mickelson | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Dustin Johnson | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Graeme McDowell | 28/1 | 3.45% |
| Justin Rose | 28/1 | 3.45% |
| Martin Kaymer | 28/1 | 3.45% |
| Padraig Harrington | 28/1 | 3.45% |
| Bubba Watson | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Ernie Els | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Hunter Mahan | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Jason Dufner | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Matt Kuchar | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Rickie Fowler | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Sergio Garcia | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Jim Furyk | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Webb Simpson | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Adam Scott | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Charl Schwartzel | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Ian Poulter | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Steve Stricker | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Jason Day | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| Nick Watney | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Peter Hanson | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Francesco Molinari | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Henrik StensonWithdrew | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| K.J. Choi | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Matteo Manassero | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Ross Fisher | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Thomas Bjorn | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Zach Johnson | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Angel Cabrera | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Bill Haas | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Martin Laird | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Paul Casey | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Retief Goosen | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Simon Dyson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Tom Lewis | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Aaron Baddeley | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Alexander Noren | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Anthony Kim | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Darren Clarke | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Davis Love III | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Gary Woodland | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Robert Karlsson | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Ryan Moore | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Sean O’Hair | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Stewart Cink | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Alvaro Quiros | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Chad Campbell | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Edoardo Molinari | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Robert Rock | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Y.E. Yang | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Lucas Glover | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Robert Allenby | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Tom Watson | 250/1 | 0.40% |
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The way the last few years has been going I would be look for a 1st time major major. Someone like a Donald, Westwood, Scott, Johnson, Rose, Fowler or a Garcia.
Can’t wait for the British Open to commence.
I find that the British Open is my favorite of the Majors. The Masters is special because it kicks off the golf season. And the US Open is like watching a train wreck. As for the PGA … it doesn’t really have an identity to me.
But the Open Championship … lots of creative shots, interesting courses and much competitiveness.
Yes I agree I think the PGA is really a major they need to look at changing. Somewhere in perhaps Asia or the Southern Hemisphere would be a great location for a 4th major.