I don’t think it’s too early to take a look at the betting odds for the 2011 US Open at Congressional Country Club. In spite of what seems to be mounting evidence that their day is done, Tiger (6/1) and Phil (10/1) top the list of favorites. They’re followed by Lee Westwood (16/1) for whom I personally also give little chance. Westwood, I think, is the new Colin Montgomerie: stellar on the ordinary stage, but not quite having the inspiration to take the big ones.
I rather like the next batch more: Rory McIlroy (16/1), Luke Donald and Martin Kaymer (20/1), Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney (25/1), and at 33/1, Charl Schwartzel, Graeme McDowell, Matt Kuchar, Paul Casey and Geoff Ogilvy.
My beef with Charl is the extreme unlikelihood of winning back-to-back majors. In the last thirty years, the only players to have done that are Tom Watson, Tiger Woods and Padraig Harrington. That’s just three back-to-backs in a hundred and twenty majors. On that basis alone, I’d say the odds of him winning are much, much worse.
The others that top the list are all talented, relatively young players who represent the best of the next generation. You may argue with Ogilvy as a new generation player, though. He’s just two years younger than Tiger.
I think the trend is that we’re going to see someone in the middle of the pack win out. Schwartzel was 50/1 for this year’s Masters. Kaymer was 40/1 for the 2011 PGA; Oosthuizen came from out of the field at the 2010 Open Championship; Graeme McDowell was 80/1 at the US Open. Mickelson was 12/1 at last year’s Masters—the last time one of the top players surfaced as a victor.
The complete betting odds for the 2011 US Open at Congressional are below, courtesy of Bodog, the world’s largest betting destination:
|Bo Van Pelt||125/1|
|Miguel Angel Jimenez||125/1|