Odds To Win The 2011 US Open - 4/21/2011

I don’t think it’s too early to take a look at the betting odds for the 2011 US Open at Congressional Country Club. In spite of what seems to be mounting evidence that their day is done, Tiger (6/1) and Phil (10/1) top the list of favorites. They’re followed by Lee Westwood (16/1) for whom I personally also give little chance. Westwood, I think, is the new Colin Montgomerie: stellar on the ordinary stage, but not quite having the inspiration to take the big ones.

I rather like the next batch more: Rory McIlroy (16/1), Luke Donald and Martin Kaymer (20/1), Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney (25/1), and at 33/1, Charl Schwartzel, Graeme McDowell, Matt Kuchar, Paul Casey and Geoff Ogilvy.

My beef with Charl is the extreme unlikelihood of winning back-to-back majors. In the last thirty years, the only players to have done that are Tom Watson, Tiger Woods and Padraig Harrington. That’s just three back-to-backs in a hundred and twenty majors. On that basis alone, I’d say the odds of him winning are much, much worse.

The others that top the list are all talented, relatively young players who represent the best of the next generation. You may argue with Ogilvy as a new generation player, though. He’s just two years younger than Tiger.

I think the trend is that we’re going to see someone in the middle of the pack win out. Schwartzel was 50/1 for this year’s Masters. Kaymer was 40/1 for the 2011 PGA; Oosthuizen came from out of the field at the 2010 Open Championship; Graeme McDowell was 80/1 at the US Open. Mickelson was 12/1 at last year’s Masters—the last time one of the top players surfaced as a victor.

The complete betting odds for the 2011 US Open at Congressional are below, courtesy of Bodog, the world’s largest betting destination:

Player Odds
Tiger Woods  6/1  
Phil Mickelson  10/1  
Lee Westwood  16/1  
Rory McIlroy  16/1  
Luke Donald  20/1  
Martin Kaymer  20/1  
Dustin Johnson  25/1  
Nick Watney  25/1  
Charl Schwartzel  33/1  
Geoff Ogilvy  33/1  
Graeme McDowell  33/1  
Matt Kuchar  33/1  
Paul Casey  33/1  
Adam Scott  40/1  
Anthony Kim  40/1  
Bubba Watson  40/1  
Hunter Mahan  40/1  
Jim Furyk  40/1  
Justin Rose  40/1  
Steve Stricker  40/1  
Ian Poulter  50/1  
Padraig Harrington  50/1  
Ernie Els  66/1  
Jason Day  66/1  
K.J. Choi  66/1  
Retief Goosen  66/1  
Aaron Baddeley  80/1  
Angel Cabrera  80/1  
Martin Laird  80/1  
Rickie Fowler  80/1  
Sergio Garcia  80/1  
Alvaro Quiros  100/1  
Bill Haas 100/1  
Brandt Snedeker  100/1  
Edoardo Molinari  100/1  
Francesco Molinari  100/1  
Gary Woodland 100/1  
Ricky Barnes  100/1  
Robert Allenby  100/1  
Ross Fisher  100/1  
Ryan Moore  100/1  
Trevor Immelman  100/1  
Vijay Singh  100/1  
YE Yang 100/1  
Zach Johnson  100/1  
Ben Crane  125/1  
Bo Van Pelt  125/1  
Camilo Villegas  125/1  
Fred Couples  125/1  
Henrik Stenson  125/1  
Jeff Overton  125/1  
Jhonattan Vegas 125/1  
Louis Oosthuizen  125/1  
Lucas Glover  125/1  
Matteo Manassero  125/1  
Miguel Angel Jimenez  125/1  
Robert Karlsson  125/1  
Rory Sabbatini  125/1  
Sean O’Hair  125/1  
Stewart Cink  125/1  
Tim Clark  125/1  
Carl Pettersson  150/1  
Jonathan Byrd  150/1  
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