The 37-year-old Tiger Woods hasn’t won a Major in five years, but he’s still a prohibitive favorite to win the Open Championship at Muirfield (and yes, I think his age is beginning to become an issue). A week before the first players tee off, bettors have Tiger as a 13/2 favorite. That translates, mathematically, to an effective 13.33% chance of winning. That’s twice the chance of the next two on the list, Adam Scott and Justin Rose, who both are in at 18/1, for a 5.26% chance.
Rory McIlroy. Seriously? Bettors have him at the same odds as Scott and Rose. He has shown no signs of life this year, and I don’t know how anyone can seriously expect him to just up and contend at the Open Championship.
Lee Westwood and Luke Donald are always in the conversation about potential Major winners. Westwood is 17th on the PGA Tour in scoring average, but 151st in Strokes Gained Putting. You’ve got to putt better to win Majors. Donald, on the other hand is 7th in Scoring Average and 7th in Strokes Gained Putting. Those are really good numbers.
Graeme McDowell is a hot commodity right now, having recently bagged his third victory of the year. He is, however, a bit of a hit-or-miss proposition. He either seems to win or miss the cut.
For my part, I think the winner is likely to come from the middle of the pack—one of the guys at 33 or 40 to 1 or so.
Complete odds to win the Open Championship for 2013 are below, courtesy of Bovada.LV
| Player | Odds | Effective % Chance To win |
|---|---|---|
| Tiger Woods | 13/2 | 13.33% |
| Adam Scott | 18/1 | 5.26% |
| Justin Rose | 18/1 | 5.26% |
| Rory McIlroy | 18/1 | 5.26% |
| Lee Westwood | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Luke Donald | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Graeme McDowell | 22/1 | 4.35% |
| Ernie Els | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Jason Day | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Phil Mickelson | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Sergio Garcia | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Charl Schwartzel | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Dustin Johnson | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Padraig Harrington | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Ian Poulter | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Matt Kuchar | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Rickie Fowler | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Henrik Stenson | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Hunter Mahan | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Martin Kaymer | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Paul Casey | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Thomas Bjorn | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Webb Simpson | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Bubba Watson | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Jason Dufner | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Matteo Manassero | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Steve Stricker | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Bill Haas | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Billy Horschel | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Francesco Molinari | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Jim Furyk | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Keegan Bradley | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Thorbjørn Olesen | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Angel Cabrera | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Branden Grace | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Paul Lawrie | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Peter Hanson | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Zach Johnson | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Nick Watney | 90/1 | 1.10% |
| Bo Van Pelt | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| George Coetzee | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Martin Laird | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Richard Sterne | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ross Fisher | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alexander Noren | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Anders Hansen | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Carl Pettersson | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Jamie Donaldson | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| K.J. Choi | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Marcel Siem | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Aaron Baddeley | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ben Curtis | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| John Senden | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Retief Goosen | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Robert Karlsson | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ryan Moore | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Sang-Moon Bae | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Seung-Yul Noh | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Shane Lowry | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Simon Dyson | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Stewart Cink | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Thomas Aiken | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Alvaro Quiros | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Brian Davis | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Darren Clarke | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| John Huh | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Robert Garrigus | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Scott Piercy | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Vijay Singh | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Y.E. Yang | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| John Daly | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Johnson Wagner | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Ashun Wu | 400/1 | 0.25% |
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